Russian offensive in Ukraine slowed to historic low: CSIS explains what's happening

The russian offensive in Ukraine has been one of the slowest of any major war in the last century. At the same time, the russian army's losses continue to grow, and the pace of personnel replenishment is no longer keeping up with combat losses.

This is stated in the study "russian Blood and Treasure: The Rising Costs of putin's War," published by analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Seth Jones and Riley McCabe.

According to experts, from the beginning of the full-scale invasion until June 2026, russia lost about 1.4 million soldiers killed, wounded and missing. Of these, from 400,000 to 450,000 are irretrievable losses.

CSIS notes that the russian army is currently losing from 30,000 to 34,000 soldiers every month, while it is able to attract only about 27,000 new recruits.

Analysts also claim that the pace of advance of the occupation forces has fallen to a level comparable to the battles of the First World War. In particular, the average advance is about 50 meters per day near Konstantinovka, 70 meters near Pokrovsk and 90 meters in the area of ​​Sloviansk.

In addition, in the spring of 2026, russia began to lose more territory than it captured for the first time since August 2024. According to CSIS estimates, in April and May, the occupiers lost about 400 square kilometers.

Analysts explain the change in the situation on the front by several factors, including high losses of the russian army, an effective campaign of Ukrainian strikes on military facilities, and the active use of modern drones with artificial intelligence.

The report cites as an example the Ukrainian Hornet attack drone, which is able to independently recognize targets using on-board artificial intelligence and operate without satellite communication, which makes it resistant to russian electronic warfare.

According to CSIS estimates, more than 90% of the losses of russian troops in the so-called "hit zones" along the front line are now caused by drones, not by small arms fire.

Recall that in June, the russian federation captured less territory than the Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated.