Inflation rates exceed trajectory of NBU forecast due to increase in price of processed products and services

The actual indicators of general and core inflation exceeded the trajectory of the National Bank's forecast, published in the Inflation Report for April 2026.

This is stated in the NBU's message, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

The main reason for the deviation from the forecast was a more significant acceleration of the growth of prices for processed food and services against the background of an increase in business costs for energy resources, wages and logistics.

The annual growth rate of prices for raw food products slowed down significantly to 4.6% y/y.

In May, the growth of prices for raw products slowed down significantly. In the future, pork prices increased more slowly due to an increase in the supply of domestic and imported products. Chicken prices also increased more slowly, and eggs decreased due to an expansion of domestic supply. Prices for cucumbers grew more slowly due to increased supply amid subdued demand, while prices for apples decreased due to increased sales of previous harvest residues. At the same time, prices for buckwheat and millet continued to grow rapidly due to limited supply, high processing costs, and stable consumer demand.

Core inflation accelerated to 7.9% y/y.

The growth of prices for processed food products accelerated slightly to 10.4% y/y. Sunflowerseed oil rose more quickly due to a shortage of raw materials and a partial suspension of production at some plants due to low processing profitability, bread due to an increase in the cost of raw materials, packaging materials, and logistics amid higher fuel prices, and fish and seafood due to higher fuel prices and storage costs. At the same time, the growth rate of prices for sausage products slowed down due to a slowdown in the growth of prices for pork and chicken.

The dynamics of prices for non-food products remained unchanged (0.3% y/y).

Services inflation accelerated slightly in May to 13.6% y/y due to a further increase in business expenses for fuel, labor, and electricity. Further, the prices of certain transport services increased more rapidly, in particular, transportation of goods, car maintenance, and driving courses, as well as leisure and beauty services. At the same time, the growth of prices for taxi services, restaurants, cafes, and fast food establishments stopped.

The growth rate of administratively regulated prices accelerated to 10.2% y/y.

This dynamics is due to a further increase in the cost of public transport in a number of regional centers, primarily due to the increase in fuel prices. In addition, the slowdown in the growth of tobacco prices stopped.

Fuel inflation accelerated slightly to 38.7% y/y.

This dynamics was primarily due to the effect of a low comparison base. At the same time, gasoline prices continued to rise in monthly terms, while diesel fuel and automotive gas became cheaper.

Overall inflation slowed down as expected under the influence of seasonal factors, but fundamental price pressure remained due to the further increase in business costs for labor, energy resources, and logistics. These and other factors will be taken into account when making subsequent monetary policy decisions.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in May 2026, inflation slowed to 8.2% in annual terms, and in monthly terms, prices increased by 0.9%.