Private consumption makes largest positive contribution to GDP growth in 2025
Private consumption has provided the largest positive contribution to real GDP growth in 2025.
This is stated in the material of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
It is noted that, on the one hand, GDP growth is expected to slow down compared to 2024 (3.2% according to the updated data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine) due to the persistence of a difficult security situation and constant russian attacks. On the other hand, despite the full-scale war, the economy has been recovering for the third year in a row thanks to robust domestic demand, loose fiscal policy, strong business adaptability, and the NBU's efforts to ensure macrofinancial stability.
Private consumption made the largest positive contribution to real GDP growth in 2025, at 4.7 percentage points (pp). In particular, final household consumption expenditures increased by 7.5%. In addition, under the conditions of a loose fiscal policy, the consumption of the public administration sector continued to grow (by 5.7% in 2025), contributing 2.1 pp to GDP growth.
Gross fixed capital accumulation in 2025 increased by 10.9% (2 pp of contribution to GDP growth). Investments were primarily directed to defense projects and agricultural processing.
The negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth increased.
The physical volume of exports declined significantly due to low stocks of agricultural products, slow harvesting, and weak demand for mining and metals products. In addition, a growing electricity deficit at the end of the year further limited the opportunities for exporters of certain products. At the same time, the growth in imports of goods and services accelerated amid further purchases of machine-building and metallurgical products to support defense capabilities, as well as energy and power equipment to rebuild infrastructure. As a result, the negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth increased to 7.9 percentage points compared to the previous year.
The gross value added (GVA) of trade (up 4.2%) and a number of services sectors continued to grow, driven by robust private consumption. Construction activity also grew at a significant pace (by 11.6%) amid housing repairs, the restoration of logistics and energy facilities, and strong demand for construction services from industrial and commercial enterprises.
In the summer months, Ukraine managed to partially restore the operation of the power system, which slowed the decline in electricity generation and distribution in 2025 (to 1.8%). The decline in mining production (10.6%) was primarily caused by the loss of the Pokrovsk Group. At the end of the year, the situation was complicated by regular shelling and electricity shortages.
Against the backdrop of unfavorable weather conditions, which caused the harvesting campaign to lag far behind last year's, the decline in agricultural GVA accelerated (to 6.2%). Livestock production also continued to decline due to the worsening epizootic situation and the effects of the war.
The depletion of agricultural stocks and a lower oilseed harvest led to a slowdown in the processing industry (to 2.5%).
According to the NBU's January forecast, economic recovery will continue in 2026. The real GDP is expected to grow by 1.8% due to increased harvests and further investment in reconstruction projects and the defense sector. Ukraine's European integration will have an additional positive impact on investment activity.
The main risk to economic development remains a full-scale war. In addition, the realization of risks associated with the irregularity and/or insufficiency of external financing, as well as the speed of the settlement of the war in the Middle East, may have a significant impact on GDP dynamics.
At the same time, positive scenarios are still likely to materialize. They are primarily related to the possible strengthening of military and financial support from partners and the international community's efforts to ensure a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in 2025, real GDP grew by 1.8%.