Business improves its cautious assessments of its performance - NBU survey

In February, business improved its cautious assessments of business activity compared to January, but slightly worsened them in annual terms.

This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for the forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

In February 2026, the BAEI was 45.9 compared to 41.3 in January 2026 (in February 2025 - 46.9).

Uncertainty about the duration of hostilities, large-scale destruction of energy facilities and infrastructure, significant costs for restoration and alternative power sources, increased electricity costs for businesses, a shortage of qualified personnel, as well as seasonality restrained economic activity and negatively affected business economic sentiment. The difficult situation in the energy sector led to a deterioration in the assessments compared to February 2025.

In contrast, positive impulses for development were created by stable consumer demand, stable international financial support and a slowdown in inflation.

Despite the difficult business conditions, enterprises in all surveyed sectors improved their assessments of business activity.

Industrial enterprises softened their assessments of the results of their current activities, but still left them restrained, given the shortage of electricity and qualified workers, as well as the increase in production costs: the sectoral index in February was 46.9 compared to 41.7 in January (in February 2025 - 50.2). Industrialists significantly weakened expectations for a decrease in the volume of manufactured products, new orders for products, including export ones, work in progress, and also softened expectations for a decrease in inventories of raw materials and materials. In contrast, assessments of the balance of finished goods were somewhat more pessimistic.

Construction companies, preparing for the start of the new season, significantly improved their expectations for their current business activity, but kept them restrained, given the difficult weather conditions and electricity shortages: the sectoral index in February rose to 46.6 compared to 37.9 in January and 44.7 in February 2025. Builders significantly softened their cautious assessments of the volume of construction, but worsened their assessments of the availability of contractors. In contrast to the previous three months, an increase in the volume of new orders was expected. Respondents were set to increase the volume of purchases of raw materials and supplies, as well as the purchase of contractor services against the background of their increasing cost.

Although trade enterprises softened, they had the most restrained expectations of all sectors regarding their current activities due to high costs for providing alternative power sources, as well as fewer calendar days in the month: the sectoral index in February was 45 compared to 40 in January (in February 2025 – 49.2). Trade companies weakened their estimates regarding the decrease in the volume of trade turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale, while, unlike the previous month, they were optimistic about inventories / balances of goods for sale. As before, respondents expected a decrease in trade margins.

Service sector enterprises maintained, although somewhat softened, their cautious assessments of current business activity, given the complicated logistics, as well as the increase in business costs for labor, heating and electricity in the winter period: the sectoral index in February was 45.4 compared to 42.1 in January (in February 2025 – 42.2). Respondents expected a lower rate of reduction in the volume of services provided, new orders for services, as well as services in the process of implementation.

Given the expected acceleration in the growth rate of purchase prices, respondents from all sectors were set for a further increase in prices / tariffs for their own products / services.

The situation on the labor market was heterogeneous. Only construction company managers were set to increase the total number of employees, respondents from other sectors expected a reduction in personnel, most significantly in industry.

The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from February 3 to 20, 2026. 598 enterprises participated in it. Among the surveyed enterprises, 43.3% were industrial companies, 25.6% were service companies, 25.3% were trade companies, 5.9% were construction companies; 30.9% of respondents were large enterprises, 29.3% were medium-sized enterprises, and 39.8% were small.

33.9% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 8.9% were export operations only, 18.4% were import operations only, and 38.8% were not engaged in foreign economic operations.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinions of respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.

The Monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. It is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their activity indicators over the past compared to the previous month.

Based on the respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.