Kremlin manipulates US-led negotiation process - ISW research

The United States has accepted the procedure demanded by russia for the transfer of the territory of the Donetsk Region to Ukraine before receiving official security guarantees. The kremlin sees an opportunity to manipulate the US-led negotiation process, turning it into another way to achieve its military and political goals.

In this context, the United States is pushing Ukraine to make territorial concessions in order to conclude a peace agreement by the summer of 2026.

This is described in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.

Western media report that the United States will not sign a final security agreement with Ukraine until Ukraine and russia reach a peace deal. The kremlin has consistently tried to convince the administration of US President Donald Trump that territory is the only significant unresolved issue in the peace talks, particularly russia's claim to the Donetsk Region, and has tried to portray Ukraine as an intransigent negotiator who refuses to give up strategically important territory that russian forces have failed to seize by force.

Russia's demand for an unconditional withdrawal from the rest of the Donetsk Region and the kremlin's refusal to hold a ceasefire for negotiations is further evidence that russia will accept nothing less than its demands.

ISW analysts note that the kremlin has consistently stood firm in its demands, and has indicated that it will seek to achieve these goals militarily if it cannot achieve them diplomatically.

In doing so, the kremlin is trying to strike a balance between showing strength to its population and allies, while engaging the United States in negotiations sufficiently to avoid additional US pressure, and continuing to pursue its military and political goals in Ukraine.