Even withdrawal of AFU from Donbas will not bring peace: ISW explains Kremlin's true intentions

Russia has much broader territorial and political goals than those it publicly voices when talking about Donbas. Even the possible withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from this region will not stop Moscow's aggression, since the Kremlin's strategic goal is to impose surrender conditions on Ukraine and the West.

This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that the signals of the russian authorities about their readiness for the so-called "peaceful settlement" are manipulative in nature and do not reflect the Kremlin's real intentions.

According to ISW, the russian federation's chief negotiator Kirill Dmitriev publicly states that the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas could become "the path to peace." At the same time, other representatives of the russian leadership demonstrate the opposite position.

In particular, the Chief of the General Staff of the russian federation Valery Gerasimov openly speaks about the creation of so-called buffer zones in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Regions. This, according to analysts, indicates much broader territorial appetites of russia, which are not limited to Donbas.

The report emphasizes that the Kremlin is making demands not only to Ukraine, but also directly to NATO. The head of the russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, stated that any peaceful settlement must eliminate the "root causes" of the war - a formulation that russia traditionally uses to justify aggression and pressure on the West.

Some russian officials directly admit that Donbas is not a key issue. Deputy Chairman of the russian State Duma Committee on Defense, Aleksei Zhuravlev, stated that the Kremlin's main focus is on the confrontation with NATO and the topic of so-called "Ukrainian neo-Nazism".

ISW analysts emphasize that these statements completely repeat russia's rhetoric of the 2021-2022 model, in particular, demands to limit NATO expansion, return the Alliance to the 1997 borders, and change the democratically elected government of Ukraine to a pro-russian one.

The report also draws attention to materials from russian state and ultranationalist media, in particular the publication "Tsargrad". These publications note that even the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbas is viewed by Moscow only as an intermediate stage.

Among russia's further demands are "denazification", "demilitarization" and the establishment of full control over Ukraine's domestic and foreign policy.

Recall, the Corriere della Sera newspaper reported, citing sources, that Ukraine was offered to give up the territories in exchange for security guarantees and USD 800 billion.