Business expectations in November were negative due to number of factors - NBU survey
Business in November provided restrained assessments of the results of current economic activity.
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for the forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
In November 2025, the BIA was 49.4 compared to 50.3 in October 2025, but was higher than the level of November 2024 (47.2).
Significant losses from increased shelling of critical infrastructure, power supply disruptions, increased business costs for raw materials, fuel and labor, lack of logistical capabilities, as well as a shortage of qualified personnel had a restraining effect on the economic activity of enterprises.
At the same time, positive factors remained brisk consumer demand, budget financing for infrastructure restoration and road construction, and a steady slowdown in inflation.
For the ninth consecutive month, trade enterprises positively assessed their current economic results and were the most optimistic among respondents for the third consecutive month due to brisk consumer demand, a steady slowdown in inflation, and a diverse product offering: the sectoral index in November was 53.8 compared to 54.3 in October 2025 (in November 2024 - 51.4). Trade companies continued to expect an increase in trade turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale, while weakening their estimates of inventories/remains of goods for sale. Respondents were set for a further decline in trade margins.
Construction companies assessed the results of their current activities at the level of the previous month, taking into account budget financing for road construction and infrastructure restoration, as well as stable domestic demand: the sectoral index in November was 50.0 compared to 53.3 in October 2025 (in November 2024 - 43.6). Builders expected an increase in construction volumes, as well as in the volume of purchases of raw materials and supplies, although at a slower pace. Given the seasonal factor, respondents were set for a significant decrease in the volume of new orders. High expectations remained for the volume of purchases of contractor services against the background of softening of restrained assessments of their availability and slowing down of the growth rates of their cost.
Service companies maintained, albeit somewhat weakened, their cautious assessments of their economic prospects, citing the worsening security situation, energy supply disruptions, and the complexity and cost of logistics: the sectoral index in November increased to 49.1 from 48.7 in October 2025 (in November 2024 - 44.8). Respondents assessed the volume of new orders for services more cautiously. At the same time, a further increase in the volume of services provided and the volume of services in the process of implementation was expected for the third consecutive month. Industrial companies provided the most cautious assessments of their performance, given the intensification of shelling, destruction of production facilities, electricity shortages, increased production costs, and a shortage of qualified workers: the sectoral index in November was 46.8 compared to 48.8 in October 2025 (in November 2024 - 46.7). Unlike last month, industrialists expected a decrease in the volume of manufactured products, and were also set to further reduce the volume of new orders for products, including export ones, and the volume of work in progress. In contrast, expectations regarding the balance of finished products were more optimistic.
Industrial and construction enterprises expected a slowdown in the growth rates of both supplier prices and prices / tariffs for their own products / services. In contrast, trade and service enterprises were set to maintain high rates of increase in the cost of goods purchased for sale / prices for their own products (services) against the background of the expected acceleration in the growth rates of purchase prices.
The situation on the labor market is unstable. Only trade enterprises expected an increase in the total number of employees. At the same time, managers in industry, the service sector and construction are set to reduce staff, most significantly in industry.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from November 4 to 21, 2025. 592 enterprises participated in it. Among the surveyed enterprises, 43.6% are industrial companies, 25.0% are service companies, 25.3% are trade companies, 6.1% are construction companies; 30.4% of respondents are large enterprises, 28.7% are medium-sized enterprises, and 40.9% are small.
34.0% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.8% carry out only export operations, 17.2% carry out only import operations, and 39.0% do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Monthly Business Activity Expectations Index is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the country's economic development for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.