NBU changes gas import forecast for coming years

The National Bank has changed its forecast of gas imports for the coming years.

This is stated in the material of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

"The NBU expects that in the fourth quarter of 2025 and in the first quarter of 2026, the economy will operate under conditions of a larger electricity deficit - at the level of 4-6%. In 2026, the estimate of the electricity deficit has been raised to 3% on average for the year. This will have a negative impact on economic activity... Estimates of gas import needs have also been revised. Imports of 6 bcm of gas are expected in 2025, 5 bcm in 2026, and 3 bcm in 2027. This will increase costs by more than USD 3 billion in 2025 and another USD 3 billion in 2026-2027," the NBU said.

According to the regulator, such an expansion of the electricity deficit will slow down GDP growth in 2025 by about 0.1 percentage point, and in 2026 - by 0.2 percentage point.

Net out-migration is currently expected to continue in 2025-2026 (about 0.2 million people annually), and only in 2027 will net return of migrants begin, but it will be rather slow (about 0.1 million people).

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the National Bank expects that in the second half of 2026 a gradual reduction of electricity and gas tariffs to their economically justified levels will begin.