NBU downgrades GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.9% in 2025

The National Bank has downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.9% in 2025.

The forecast for economic growth for the next year has also been downgraded - from 2.3% to 2%, and for 2027 - maintained at 2.8%.

It is noted that in the third quarter of 2025, according to the NBU, economic growth revived due to the intensification of early crops, steady consumer demand and an improved situation in the energy sector, which persisted until the end of September.

The expected increase in fiscal stimulus at the end of the year will support further recovery.

However, the energy shortage caused by the recent destruction of infrastructure and gas production capacities, together with the persistent labor shortage, will significantly limit business activity.

Taking this into account, the NBU has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9%.

In the coming years, economic growth is expected to accelerate moderately due to increased harvests and increased investment in reconstruction projects and the defense sector.

Further European integration of Ukraine and the gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions will also have a positive impact on investment activity, which, in particular, will be reflected in the stabilization of the situation in the energy sector and the reversal of negative migration dynamics.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in July the National Bank worsened the GDP growth forecast due to the war and the negative impact of weather conditions on harvests.