Inflation in September was lower than NBU forecast due to more significant decrease in price of vegetables and fruits

Inflation in September was lower than the National Bank forecast due to a more significant decrease in the price of vegetables and fruits.

This is stated in the NBU report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"The actual inflation trajectory remained lower than the forecast published in the July inflation report, due to the impact of a significant decrease in the price of vegetables and a weakening of price pressure in the fruit market. In contrast, the slowdown in core inflation was close to the forecast, and its seasonally adjusted indicators continued to indicate the preservation of fairly stable fundamental price pressure," the report says.

The annual growth rate of prices for raw food products continued to slow down - to 18.1% y/y.

It is noted that prices for most vegetables decreased in annual terms due to high harvests, as well as due to the unsuitability of individual products for long-term storage due to their low quality.

In particular, cabbage, peppers, cucumbers, beets, carrots, onions, potatoes and tomatoes became cheaper in annual terms.

The rate of price growth for all fruits slowed down sharply.

The growth in egg prices also slowed down mainly due to the effects of the comparison base.

The rate of price growth for flour and certain cereals continued to decrease due to the arrival of new grain crops.

The growth in prices for milk and, for the first time in a long time, for poultry meat slowed down.

In contrast, the acceleration of price growth for pork and beef continued due to the reduction in livestock this year.

The growth in the cost of non-food goods also slowed down - to 2.3% y/y. The fall in prices for clothing and footwear continued.

Inflation of services was unchanged at 14.1%, and its dynamics in the context of individual services was multidirectional.

Thus, the increase in prices for higher education services, cafes and restaurants, and personal care services accelerated.

In contrast, the growth in prices for outpatient services, apartment rental fees, and prices for other educational (except higher education) services slowed down.

The growth rate of administratively regulated prices slowed down slightly to 10.7% y/y.

Such dynamics was explained by a decrease in the rate of increase in prices for tobacco products. Instead, the growth rate of prices for alcoholic beverages accelerated.

The growth rate of fuel prices slowed down to 4.7%.

Such dynamics is largely due to the effect of the comparison base, while prices for the main types of fuel in September remained almost unchanged against the background of stabilization of world oil prices.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, inflation continued to slow in September 2025, to 11.9% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.3%.