Dozens of years. ISW predicts when russia will be able to completely occupy Ukraine

The aggressor country of russia is suffering huge losses at the front, trying to gain minimal territorial gains in Ukraine, and at the current pace it will need dozens of years to fully occupy the country.

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), quoted by RBC-Ukraine.

The analysts emphasized that the russian army "is paying a colossal price for meager territorial gains."

"It will take russia about 89 years to capture all of Ukraine at its current relatively accelerated pace of advance, which has changed throughout the war and is unlikely to remain constant," they cite an assessment from an article in The Economist.

At the same time, experts predict that at the current pace, the russians will be able to capture the remaining territories of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Regions, which they have included in their constitution, only by February 2028.

"The pace of russian advance - about 15.8 square kilometers per day - is exceptionally high compared to the advance in the winter of 2024-2025 and the spring of 2025 and is unlikely to be maintained," the ISW noted.

According to analysts, since May 1, russia could have lost about 31,000 killed and wounded, and since July 2024, russian troops have captured only about 0.038 square kilometers for each soldier killed.

"Russian forces will likely continue to destroy their own personnel during summer offensive operations, trying to seize the remnants of the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions and advance into the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Regions," ISW concluded.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, 232 civilians were killed in russian attacks in June. This is more than in any other month of the war.