AI predicts which district of Kyiv least vulnerable to missile attacks

Ukrainian military expert Denys Popovych, using artificial intelligence ChatGPT, simulated a possible scenario of a massive attack on Kyiv and found that the Desnianskyi district of the capital is the least vulnerable to missiles and drones. At the same time, the greatest risk of damage is in the Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi and Solomyanskyi districts.

Denys Popovych wrote about this on Facebook.

According to him, the calculation was carried out in a conditional scenario, taking into account data on the number of buildings, the effectiveness of air defense and the likely priorities of the enemy.

"So, let's say 741 missiles were launched over Kyiv. The average efficiency of air defense is 82% (information provided by the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the end of June). Chat GPT estimated the average number of buildings in Kyiv at 150,000 (possibly, small architectural structures were also taken into account). Chat GPT estimated the average number of buildings in Kyiv that can be considered a priority for shelling at 500. Chat considers such buildings to be state institutions, energy facilities, headquarters, airports, military units," the expert writes.

The analysis conducted by AI showed that if 741 missiles or drones were launched over Kyiv and they were evenly distributed across the city, the chance of hitting any particular building (including yours) is only about 0.089%. That is, the probability that it will not be hit is almost 100% (or more precisely, 99.911%).

At the same time, for priority targets - such as government buildings, energy facilities, or headquarters - the risk is much higher: the probability of hitting is 23%. If a missile or drone breaks through air defenses and is aimed specifically at a specific object, the probability of a direct hit is almost 100%.

The military expert asked Artificial Intelligence to prepare a graph that would show the probability of hitting one building for each of the 10 districts of the capital. At the same time, the average number of buildings in each district was conditionally taken as 10,000. A heat map was also created that demonstrates which districts are potentially at the greatest risk - and which are the least vulnerable.

"The most dangerous district is Shevchenkivskyi. In second place is Sviatoshynskyi, in third is Solomyanskyi. Desnianskyi district is the safest," says Denys Popovych's post.

At the same time, he reminds that these are average figures, and the picture of hits may be different if the russians attack with a larger number of drones and missiles. Popovych also warned that the AI ​​calculations made cannot be used to make security decisions, and during air alarms it is necessary to descend to shelters.

Recall that the publication Texty.org.ua. analyzed the number of hits in Kyiv and named the Shevchenkivskyi, Sviatoshynskyi, Solomyanskyi and Holosiyivskyi districts as the most dangerous areas. The Desnianskyi district (Troyeshchyna) was also named the safest there. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the intensity of shelling has increased, and russia's tactics have evolved - from artillery to massive combined attacks with Shaheds and missiles.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the artificial intelligence of the social network X (formerly Twitter) - the Grok chatbot - responded to a wave of pro-russian provocations, relying on verified sources.