Artificial intelligence predicts how war between Iran and Israel will affect fighting in Ukraine

The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, which gained strength in mid-June 2025, has a number of consequences for the situation in Ukraine. First of all, it has already had a tangible impact on world oil prices. After the IDF strikes on Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure, the cost of Brent initially jumped by 7–11% to USD 74–78 per barrel.

Analysts from JPMorgan believe that in the event of a complete blockade of Iranian oil exports, quotes could reach USD 120–130 per barrel. Such an increase will deepen inflationary pressure in the world, complicate government budget planning and make military supplies in Ukraine more expensive.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already expressed concern: the lack of an effective price-control mechanism allows russia to increase its oil export revenues, which strengthens its financial resources for the war against Ukraine. Ukraine demands that Western partners, especially the United States, urgently impose such restrictions.

The second important aspect concerns the impact on the transfer of American weapons to Ukraine. The United States is forced to redirect a significant part of its resources to support Israel - especially air defense systems, although this is not officially recognized. Washington continues to demonstrate its unwavering support for Israel, but the issue of costs may lead to delays in new aid packages for Ukraine, especially in the context of limited budgets and political sensitivities in Congress.

The third is a regional factor: Iran is likely to limit the supply of Shaheds and other drones to russia. Ukrainian officials in Kyiv have noted the possibility of reducing these supplies due to Israeli strikes on Iran's defense infrastructure. This will weaken the kremlin's logistical support and may give Ukraine a tactical advantage on the front.

The threatening aspect is the redirection of the West's attention. The conflict in the Middle East, as analysts note, will distract international attention from Ukraine, while at the same time strengthening Russia's position as a mediator in the region. Moscow will feel the benefits of this situation: firstly, due to the growth of energy revenues, and secondly, due to the change in the West's geopolitical priorities.

The forecast for the evolution of the situation and its impact on Ukraine looks like this: in the coming months, oil prices will remain high, provided that the conflict does not break out of the "controlled confrontation". In the worst-case scenario - the interruption of Iranian exports and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - a Brent price of USD 120-130 per barrel is possible. This, in fact, will strengthen russia's economic position as an aggressor, fueling its militarized economy.

However, there is also a strategic opportunity for Ukraine - the weakening of Iran's supply channels for weapons systems due to IDF strikes. If the US can keep Ukraine’s support a priority and deploy an effective price cap on russian oil, Ukraine can maintain a balance — reduce hostile support for the kremlin and avoid a serious environmental and economic shock.

So, the optimal forecast: the Iran-Israel conflict will increase russia’s revenues in the short term, cause inflationary challenges in Europe, but also potentially weaken the Kremlin’s logistical capabilities by limiting Iranian UAV supplies. Ukraine should increase diplomatic pressure on the US and the EU to introduce price limits on russian oil and at the same time contribute to the maximum isolation of Iran as a supplier of weapons to the enemy.

Forecast generated on the basis of open sources using the ChatGPT language model from OpenAI. Sources used were Reuters, AP News, Business Insider, The Economist.