Kremlin hiding scale of economic recession and losing remnants of its financial cushion – Foreign Intelligence

The degradation of the russian economy is deepening against the backdrop of a protracted war against Ukraine and multi-level Western sanctions, and the key stabilization tool of the aggressor state, the National Welfare Fund (NWF), is undergoing a systemic reduction.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine has reported this.

"As of early July 2022, the volume of the liquid part of the NWF reached USD 145 billion. Within a year, in July 2023, this figure decreased to USD 78 billion. As of May 1, 2025, the reserves amounted to only USD 39 billion. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the decline has almost quadrupled," the report notes.

The Foreign Intelligence Service indicates that the main source of revenue for the russian NWF - oil exports - remains under pressure.

"It is predicted that in 2025 the average price of Brent oil will be USD 64 per barrel, and in 2026 – USD 60. For Russia, whose budget is replenished at the expense of oil and gas revenues, such dynamics create critical fiscal risks," the report says.

According to the agency, problems are already reflected in key sectors, but despite this, the russian federation continues to publicly demonstrate confidence in the stability of the economy.

"However, state-controlled propaganda, which hides the real scale of the economic downturn, does not change the facts: the resource model of the Russian economy is losing efficiency. If the current restrictions and additional measures are maintained – in particular, strengthening control over circumvention of oil sanctions – the Russian Federation risks losing the last remnants of its financial cushion as early as 2026," the Foreign Intelligence Service notes.