NBU downgrades GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.1% in 2025
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.1% in 2025.
This is announced in the NBU's statement, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
The GDP growth forecast for next year has also been downgraded from 4% to 3.7%, and for 2027 - from 4.2% to 3.9%.
The economic recovery will continue, but will remain limited due to the consequences of the war and trade conflicts in the world.
In the first quarter of 2025, economic growth remained subdued, in particular due to the destruction of gas infrastructure and the resulting increase in gas import needs.
Despite some recovery in the labor market, a significant restraining factor, according to business surveys, was also the war-related shortage of qualified workers.
The escalation of trade conflicts in the world has not yet affected the Ukrainian economy, but will continue to hold back its recovery.
Tariff wars are likely to lead to some weakening of external demand for certain Ukrainian export goods, although agricultural products will remain in demand even in the context of a cooling global economy.
Taking into account the above factors, the NBU has slightly worsened its estimates of the dynamics of economic recovery.
The Ukrainian economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025.
This will be facilitated, in particular, by increased harvests and a reduction in the electricity deficit, which, together with significant defense orders, will support industry.
In 2026 and 2027, real GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7-3.9%, primarily due to increased investment in reconstruction, the restoration of production, and the stability of consumer demand.
Private investment and consumption will offset the effects of fiscal consolidation, which will take place against the backdrop of a decrease in international financial assistance.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in January of this year, the National Bank of Ukraine downgraded its GDP growth forecast from 4.3% to 3.6% in 2025.