Russia will attack Europe earlier if war in Ukraine ends by 2030 – German intelligence

The head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, said that russia's attack on Europe depends on the course of the war in Ukraine. Russia could test NATO's collective security guarantees, and if the war in Ukraine ends before 2029-2030, this will increase the risks for Europe.

He said this in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

It is reported that russia will probably try to test the unity of the Western countries and the effectiveness of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (which stipulates that an attack on one NATO member state is an attack on all) depends on the development of the situation on the front in Ukraine.

"We really hope that this will not happen, but we must take into account that Russia will want to test us, to test the unity of the West," Bruno Kahl said.

He also added that if the war in Ukraine ends by 2029-2030, russia will be able to become a threat to Europe more quickly. This will allow russia to shift its energy and efforts to Europe, and not just Ukraine.

"Ending the war earlier than expected will allow Russia to redirect its forces and energy more quickly to attack Europe," explained Kahl.

In addition, he emphasized that russia seeks to restore a world order similar to the one that existed in Europe in the late 1990s, when American troops were not present in Europe, and russia could expand its sphere of influence to the West.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the Head of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that if russia gains control over Ukraine, its next target will be Poland.