ISW analyzes how RF taking advantage of lack of US military aid to Ukraine

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that in the absence of US aid to Ukraine, the russians are intensifying their offensives on the battlefield, as well as increasing the power of combined drone and missile strikes to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses and adapt to electronic warfare innovations.

This is stated in the ISW report.

On the night of March 6-7, russian forces carried out one of the largest missile and drone strikes in history on Ukraine, as russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to suppress Ukrainian air defenses, increasing the total number of Shahed drones and camouflage drones in each strike.

On the night of March 6-7, russian forces carried out the largest combined strike on Ukraine since November 2024.

Analysts suggest that russian forces began increasing the number of Shahed drones and decoy drones in strike packages in the fall of 2024, likely to adapt to successful Ukrainian innovations in electronic warfare (EW).

"Russia likely used the increased production of Shahed to increase the total number of drones launched in each strike package.

In January 2025, russian forces launched an average of 83.4 drones per strike group, in February 2024, 139.3 drones per strike group, and in the period from March 1 to 7, an average of 128.8 drones per strike group.

Russian forces only sporadically included missiles in strike complexes in January, February, and March 2025, and the 67 missiles launched in the series of strikes from March 6 to 7 are a higher number than in previous missile strikes this year," the report said.

Experts note that russian forces likely increased the total number of Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles in the March 6-7 strike packages to inflict maximum damage on selected targets in Ukraine, while using large numbers of Shahed drones, decoy drones, and Kalibr cruise missiles to detect and suppress Ukrainian air defenses and mobile fire groups.

“Russia is likely to take advantage of the suspension of U.S. military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine to intensify its long-range strike campaign and deplete the Ukrainian air defense missile stockpile,” the review says.

"US intelligence has contributed to Ukraine's early warning system for russian strikes, and its suspension is likely to affect Ukraine's ability to respond quickly to the adaptation of russian strike packages," experts suggest.

"Russia also likely intends to force Ukraine to quickly deplete its stock of Patriot air defense interceptors, which Ukraine relies on to protect against russian ballistic missiles, during a pause in US military aid and intelligence sharing, in order to maximize the damage from subsequent strikes.

Ukrainian forces will likely be forced to intercept strikes more selectively as their stock of interceptors dwindles and is not expected to be replenished, and successful russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities are likely to have a long-term impact on Ukraine's ability to generate electricity for defense and civilian use," the ISW report said.

The report also indicates that russian forces continue to intensify offensive operations in certain areas of the front, likely to take advantage of any immediate and long-term consequences of the suspension of US assistance to Ukraine on the battlefield.

In recent weeks, russian forces have intensified offensive operations in the direction of Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka, and are continuing attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Oblast and capture Pokrovsk in the Donetsk Region.

"Previously, russian forces have already used the shortage of Ukrainian materiel caused by the delay in US aid in the spring of 2024 to achieve significant successes in the Donetsk Region and launch an offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv Region, and the Kremlin likely intends to use the expected shortage of Ukrainian materiel to gain additional advantages if the suspension of US military aid continues," the Institute's experts stated.

ISW Key Findings:

• On the night of March 6-7, russian forces carried out one of the largest-ever missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, as russian forces continue to adapt strike packages to suppress Ukrainian air defenses, increasing the total number of Shahed drones and stealth drones in each strike.
• In the fall of 2024, russian forces began increasing the number of Shahed drones and decoy drones in strike packages, likely to adapt to successful Ukrainian innovations in electronic warfare (EW).
• Russia is likely to take advantage of the pause of American military aid to Ukraine and intelligence sharing with it to step up its long-range strike campaign and deplete Ukrainian air defense missile stockpiles.
• Russian forces continue to intensify offensive operations in selected areas of the front, likely to take advantage of any immediate and long-term consequences of the cessation of American assistance to Ukraine on the battlefield.
• Russian forces recently advanced into the northern Sumy Region for the first time since 2022, as Ukrainian forces pushed the invaders out of significant areas of Ukrainian territory after the first months of the russian offensive. Russian forces likely intend to use the limited advance into the Sumy Region to completely push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces have also intensified offensive operations aimed at capturing Chasiv Yar and advancing on Kostiantynivka, the southernmost settlement in the Ukrainian fortified belt in the Donetsk Region.
• Russian officials continue to openly refuse to make any concessions in future peace talks or accept any peace proposals from the US, Europe or Ukraine.
• Lithuanian intelligence estimates that russia may have the capacity to conduct a limited campaign against one or more NATO countries within three to five years, which coincides with ISW assessments of russia’s efforts to restructure and prepare its armed forces and society for a future conflict with NATO in the medium to long term.
• The UK has released to Ukraine the first tranche of proceeds from frozen russian assets.
• Russian forces have advanced in the Sumy Region and near Borova, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• The Kremlin continues to use its "Heroes' Time" program to appoint veterans of the war in Ukraine to government positions as part of a long-term effort to militarize russian society and create a new cadre of loyal russian officials.