Russia may shift priority of offensive from Pokrovsk to Kostiantynivka in spring and summer of 2025 - ISW

The aggressor state of russia may likely shift priority of offensive from Pokrovsk to Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk Region in spring and summer 2025.

This was reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The advance of russian troops south and southwest of Pokrovsk has slowed over the past two weeks amid signs that the russian military command may prioritize offensive operations against Kostiantynivka - the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in the Donetsk Region - in spring and summer of 2025," the report says.

It is indicated that since the beginning of February 2025, the russian advance southwest of Pokrovsk has slowed. Also on February 14, during the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the situation in the Pokrovsk Axis had improved in recent days.

Analysts noted that the advance of russian troops south of Pokrovsk could have slowed due to the deterioration of the state of forward russian units and the intensification of Ukrainian drone operations in the area.

"Over the past five and a half months, russian troops have suffered significant personnel losses along the entire front line, and most likely they suffered most of these losses in the Pokrovsk Axis. Such losses are likely to negatively affect the combat capability of russian units in the area," the report emphasized.

It also states that the russian military command may intend to prioritize the assaults on Kostiantynivka in 2025, and, as reported, thus not to strengthen the russian grouping south of Pokrovsk.

"The redeployment of significant russian forces to the Kostiantynivka Axis indicates that the russian military command may have identified the offensive on Kostiantynivka as its priority task for the spring and summer of 2025," the analysts explained.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, 261 combat clashes were recorded at the front over the past 24 hours, the largest of which were in the Pokrovsk (71), Kupyansk (39) and Kramatorsk (39) Axes.