Russian army continues "creeping advance" to please putin – Institute for the Study of War

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that the russian occupiers are preparing to surround Kupiansk and cross the Oskil River, and are also continuing their "creeping advance" to please russian ruler vladimir putin, who is not going to end the war.

ISW analysts note that russian troops are expanding their positions north of Kupiansk as part of a long-term operational effort aimed at displacing Ukrainian forces from the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River.

The occupiers have recently intensified offensive operations north of Kupiansk, in particular near Dvorichna, as part of a broader intensification on the Kupiansk, Borova and Lyman axes.

Geolocation data released on January 30 and 31 indicate that russian forces have recently made minor advances north of Dvorichna (north of Kupiansk and on the west bank of the Oskil River), to the southern outskirts of Zakhidne (southwest of Dvorichna), and north along the west bank of the Oskil River northwest of Novomlynsk (northeast of Dvorichna).

Russian forces are also using mechanized attacks to expand their positions north of Kupiansk.

Units of the russian 6th Combined Arms Army (Leningrad Military District) are reportedly playing a leading role in russian efforts to expand positions north of Kupiansk.

"The tempo of Russian offensive operations along this sector of the front was generally much lower than elsewhere in eastern Ukraine throughout most of 2024 and Russian units in the area are likely well-rested and prepared to begin a months-long campaign to envelop Kupiansk," the ISW said.

The russian military does not appear to have significant unused reserves to devote to this effort, the researchers said, but the russian military command may be prepared to redeploy forward units from other sectors of the front to take advantage of any significant tactical advantages in the Dvorichna-Kupiansk area.

Parts of the russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Moscow Military District) are also participating in the encirclement of Kupiansk and are attempting to advance east of Kupiansk and expand the russian salient south of Kupiansk in the Kruhliakivka area, likely in preparation for an offensive south of Kupiansk, crossing the Oskil River, and putting pressure on Borova.

"The Russian military command has demonstrated that it is prepared to engage in operations that could last six to nine months. It is likely acting on the assumption or knowledge that Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine in the near future," ISW believes.

“Russian forces have been gradually working to push Ukrainian forces from the eastern bank of the Oskil River since the winter of 2023-2024, and the Russian military command has previously deprioritized the Kupiansk-Borova-Lyman line in favor of other operational efforts in Ukraine,” the analysts noted.

“The encirclement of Kupiansk will almost certainly be a months-long effort that will require Russian forces to close a 25-30 kilometer-wide gap, as well as to force the Oskil River, capture small settlements along the way, and repel Ukrainian counterattacks.

The Russian command does not seem to be concerned with the speed or consistency of its advance in Ukraine, likely because it believes the war will continue until Russia inflicts a military defeat on Ukraine,” the ISW noted.

Experts recall that putin previously formulated a theory of "victory," which assumes that the russian military will be able to continue a gradual, creeping advance in Ukraine indefinitely, and has repeatedly indicated that he is not interested in resolving the war on any terms other than those he dictates.

"Putin's command is absorbing these statements and is likely coming to the logical conclusion that Putin is not interested in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he achieves his goals in Ukraine, which are to overthrow the current Ukrainian government and categorically destroy the Ukrainian army," ISW emphasized.

Experts note that russia’s ability to continue its slow encirclement of populated areas rather than attempting a rapid mechanized maneuver that breaks through the Ukrainian defense line and quickly achieves operationally significant gains depends, in the medium and long term, on its ability to supply the large numbers of personnel and materiel needed to sustain these operations.

In addition, russian forces are also stepping up their efforts to close off the remaining Ukrainian “pocket” west of Kurakhove.

“Russian forces are likely aiming to close off or destroy the Ukrainian “pocket” west of Kurakhove in order to free up Russian forces operating in the area for offensive operations elsewhere, such as advancing to the administrative border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Regions from the direction of Pokrovsk or Velyka Novosilka, as previously assessed by ISW," ISW noted.

Key ISW findings for January 31:

• The United Kingdom (UK), Finland, and Czechia announced several immediate and longer-term military assistance packages for Ukraine on January 31.
• Russian forces are expanding their salient north of Kupiansk as part of long-term operational efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the east (left) bank of the Oskil River.
• Elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly leading the russian effort to expand the salient north of Kupiansk.
• Elements of the russian 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA) (Moscow Military District [MMD]) are also participating in the envelopment of Kupyansk and are attempting to advance east of Kupiansk and to expand the russian salient south of Kupiansk near Kruhliakivka likely in order to prepare for advances south of Kupiansk, cross the Oskil River, and pressure Borova.
• Russian forces appear to be developing and disseminating a doctrinal method for advances throughout the theater that aims to conduct slow envelopments of frontline towns and settlements at a scale that is reasonable for russian forces to conclude before culminating.
• The russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude. Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that russian president vladimir putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future.
• This russian offensive method is bringing about slow operational maneuver on the battlefield, but these envelopments require significant planning, foresight, manpower, and equipment and do not restore rapid, mechanized maneuver to the battlefield.
• Russian forces are also intensifying their efforts to close the remaining Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove.
• Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities agreed to accept a European Union (EU) package that includes funding for gas purchases for Transnistria, further limiting russia’s economic influence over the pro-russian breakaway republic.
• Ukrainian forces struck a russian oil refinery in the Volgograd Oblast amid continued strikes against russian energy and defense industrial infrastructure.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Western and Ukrainian officials continue to report that North Korean forces have withdrawn from frontline positions in the Kursk Oblast.