Russia building up drone production for winter campaign against Ukraine – ISW

Russia continues to scale up production of Shahed drones ahead of the 2024-2025 winter campaign against Ukraine, despite sanctions and technical restrictions.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, citing Ukrainian intelligence, write in their report that a russian plant in the Alabuga special economic zone in the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 Shahed drones between January and September 2024. This is twice as much as was produced in 2023. According to leaked documents, the company has already signed an agreement to produce 6,000 drones by September 2025.

It is also reported that russia is actively developing low-tech decoy drones similar to the Shahed, which are used to overcome Ukrainian air defense systems. It is planned to produce up to 10,000 of these decoys by the end of 2024, which is almost twice the number of strike drones.

The report notes that the russians have built two new workshops at the Alabuga plant and installed drone-proof nets over buildings. To improve logistics, the russians have created a railway station with a direct connection between russia and China, through which the necessary components for the production of drones are supplied.

"Russian forces will likely continue to adjust their strike packages during Winter 2024-2025 and beyond in order to inflict significant damage on Ukraine's energy grid and critical infrastructure, and Russia likely intends to further increase its production and use of Shahed drones following the anticipated signing of the Russian-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in January 2025," ISW believes.

The analysts write in their report that russia faces restrictions in providing factories with quality components due to Western sanctions. The russians are forced to use low-quality Chinese-made engines. At the same time, Ukrainian forces, thanks to innovations in electronic warfare, are effectively countering Shahed strikes.

Key Takeaways:

• Russia has continued to expand its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones ahead of its Winter 2024–2025 strike campaign against Ukraine.
• Russia has yet to address limitations in its ability to produce and field Shahed drones, however, and will likely continue to struggle with these limitations in 2025.
• North Korean forces are continuing to experience high casualty rates amid recent confirmation of the first captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces recently conducted a HIMARS strike against a russian staff meeting in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Region, reportedly killing three russian officers, following Ukrainian warnings about the possibility of renewed russian offensive operations in the western Zaporizhzhia Region.
• Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) attempted to blame weather conditions and the pilot’s response to the russian emergency airspace closure over the Republic of Chechnya for the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft crash in Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 25.
• A russian insider source — who is reportedly affiliated with russian law enforcement and released an alleged transcript of the communications between the crew and a russian air traffic control in Grozny — accused Rosaviatsiya of attempting to conceal the misuse of russian air defense systems.
• Finnish authorities seized the russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion that the vessel was recently involved in damaging undersea electricity and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea but noted that it is too soon to conclude that russia is behind the cable disruptions.
• Russian president vladimir putin appointed russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to head the newly established Scientific Expert Council of the russian Security Council.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk and russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to increase the value of enlistment bonuses to incentivize military recruitment.