Offensive of russian army will likely end in coming months - ISW

The army of the aggressor country of the russian federation has significantly depleted its reserves, which were created for an intensified offensive operation in the summer of 2024. According to ISW analysts, the current offensive operation is likely to conclude in the coming months.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The russian command is likely to seek to intensify mechanized offensive actions so that russian forces can advance through open areas and entrench themselves in populated areas near the front line. These settlements are planned to be used as bridgeheads for further offensive operations, the goal of which is, for example, to capture Kurakhove in the west of the Donetsk Region or Pokrovsk.

However, autumn weather is likely to complicate the maneuvers of the russian infantry. The loss of leaves on trees in the fall will reduce the ability to camouflage infantry groups, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian drones and their reconnaissance.

Although adverse weather conditions are likely to reduce infantry effectiveness, russian forces are likely to continue offensive operations after the autumn off-road period. Putin and the russian command have pursued a strategy of constant pressure on Ukrainian forces to prevent Ukraine from gathering forces and resources, and will likely continue to implement this strategy despite seasonal difficulties.

It will be recalled that Zelenskyy announced the possibility of ending the war no later than 2025.