Soldiers of Defense Forces carry out counterattacks on separate areas of front - ISW

Ukrainian troops are trying to seize the tactical initiative by carrying out limited counterattacks on certain areas of the front. And they will be able to counterattack, depending on the arrival of Western aid.

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Western and American officials estimate that Ukrainian forces will remain on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to launch a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025.

However, ISW military analysts noted that Ukrainian forces are already trying to seize the tactical initiative by conducting limited counterattacks in certain areas of the front. And they will be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations, even while largely on the defensive, depending on the flow of Western aid. The New York Times reported on July 11 that a senior NATO official said Ukraine would have to wait for more Western security assistance and deploy more of its forces to the front before launching counteroffensive operations. And that Ukraine probably won't be able to carry out these operations until 2025.

A senior US Department of Defense official has said that Ukrainian forces will remain on the defensive for the next six months (until January 2025), and that russian forces are unlikely to make significant gains during that time.

ISW continues to assess that russian forces are currently unlikely to achieve operationally significant gains in Ukraine, and the theory of victory formulated by russian president vladimir putin is aimed at a consistent gradual creeping advance of russian forces, rather than rapid operationally significant maneuvering.

Currently, Ukraine is solving its personnel problems and forming several new brigades, and the provision of Western security assistance necessary to equip these brigades will determine when and to what extent Ukraine will be able to counterattack.

Smaller-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive operations open opportunities to achieve operationally important goals without challenges. They will allow Ukraine to quickly start undermining russia's ability to use the initiative in the entire theater of operations and to quickly reduce some pressure on Ukrainian forces.

However, these Ukrainian operations do not necessarily have to be a single large-scale effort, instead they could be a series of complex counteroffensive operations that will take place in late 2024 and throughout 2025.

ISW Key Findings for July 12:

- According to Western and American officials, Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025. However, Ukrainian forces are already attempting to seize the tactical initiative by conducting limited counterattacks in certain areas of the front, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct limited counteroffensive operations, even while largely on the defensive, depending on the flow of Western aid.

- The Kremlin continues to signal its reluctance to participate in peace talks that do not lead to the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West to the Kremlin's demands, against the background of Ukraine's ongoing efforts to build an international consensus for future negotiations.

- Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov used a phone call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on July 12, the second in three weeks, to repeat standard russian threats aimed at forcing the US to withdraw its support for Ukraine as part of an ongoing reflexive control campaign aimed at Western policy makers.

- The UK government has reportedly prevented Ukraine from using UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets inside russia, despite earlier reports from the West and official UK statements to the contrary.

- On July 11, the US Department of Defense announced the provision of a package of military aid to Ukraine in the amount of USD 225 million.

- Indian state refiners are reportedly in talks to import oil with russia, likely a result of recent meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and russian president vladimir putin and improved russian-Indian energy relations in recent months.

- The Kremlin continues to intensify efforts aimed at encouraging self-censorship in the information space and strengthening physical control over Internet infrastructure.

- Recently, russian troops made confirmed advances near Avdiyivka and in the border zone of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Regions.

- Russian infantry units are storming Ukrainian entrenched positions in single formation columns due to the extensiveness of Ukrainian minefields and poor training of assault units.

- On July 12, the head of russia, vladimir putin, met with the head of the occupation administration of the Zaporizhzhia Region, Yevhen Balytskyi, and discussed social and infrastructure projects in the occupied Zaporizhzhia Region.