US Department of Agriculture predicts decrease in harvest of wheat and corn in Ukraine in 2024/25 MY

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts a decrease in wheat harvest in Ukraine by 8.7%, or 2 million tons, to 21 million tons, and corn - by 12.9%, or 4 million tons, to 27 million tons in 2024/25 marketing year (July 2024 - June 2025).

This is stated in the message of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) association, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, in the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukrainian grain exports will also decrease: wheat - by 3.5 million to 14 million tons, corn - by 2 million tons to 26 million tons.

At the same time, in 2024/25 marketing year world wheat production is forecast at a record-breaking 798.2 million tons.

Thus, production increased in India (by 3.5 million tons to 114.0 million tons), China (by 3.4 million tons to 140 million tons), Australia (by 3.0 million tons to 29 million tons), Kazakhstan (by 2.4 million tons to 14.5 million tons), Canada (by 2.1 million tons to 34 million tons) and the United States (by 1.3 million tons to 50.6 million tons) are expected to more than offset reduction of production in russia (by 3.5 million tons to 88 million tons), Great Britain (by 2.8 million tons to 11.2 million tons), the EU (by 2.5 million tons to 132.0 million tons) and Ukraine.

Forecasted global consumption of wheat in 2024/25 marketing year will increase by 2 million tons to a record-breaking 802.4 million tons.

The forecast volume of world trade in 2024/25 marketing year will amount to 216 million tons, which is 0.4 million tons more than last year, but below the record-breaking level of 2022/23 marketing year of 220.7 million tons.

At the same time, it is predicted that russia will remain the world's leading exporter of wheat in 2024/25 marketing year with exports of 52 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons less than in 2023/24 marketing year.

It is also forecast that world corn production will decrease from the previous year's record by 8.2 million tons to 1,220 million tons.

Production will decrease the most in the USA (by 12.2 million tons to 377.5 million tons), Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina (by 2 million tons to 51 million tons), Malawi, Mozambique, and Turkey.

This is partially offset by higher harvests forecast in Brazil (by 5.0 million tons to 127 million tons), the EU (by 3.8 million tons to 64.8 million tons), China (by 3.2 million tons to 292 million tons tons), South Africa (by 3 million tons to 17 million tons) and Mexico (by 1.7 million tons to 25 million tons).

World corn use in 2024/25 marketing year is expected to grow by less than 1% to a record-breaking 1,221 million tons.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food forecasts a 10% decrease in the yield of grain and leguminous crops, or 8 million tons, to 74 million tons in 2024 compared to 2023.