Before presidential elections in RF, occupiers are trying to seize initiative at the front – ISW

Russian forces are likely to have launched offensive operations in many areas of the front during the most difficult weather conditions of the autumn and winter season, trying to seize and hold the initiative until the March 2024 presidential elections in russia.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Thus, analysts state that russian troops are currently conducting offensive actions along most of the front line in Ukraine, in particular along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk Regions, near Bakhmut and in the direction of Avdiyivka, and are also conducting continuous ground attacks in the west of the Zaporizhzhia Region.

"The current pace of hostilities across the entire frontline in Ukraine is broadly consistent with ISW's ongoing assessment that russian forces are attempting to regain the initiative on the battlefield at least from mid-November 2023," ISW reports.

Recent official statements by the Ukrainian military also indicate that russian forces have managed to seize the initiative along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk Regions, near Bakhmut and along the Avdiyivka-Donetsk Axis. In contrast, Ukrainian forces retain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as evidenced by constant Ukrainian counterattacks in the west of the Zaporizhzhia Region and a persistent, larger-than-usual Ukrainian presence on the eastern shore of the Kherson Region.

"The fact that russian forces tried to seize the initiative and conduct offensive operations in early-mid November 2023, under the most difficult weather conditions of the year, rather than wait for severe frosts, shows that russian forces are under pressure to completely intercept and to hold the initiative in the first months of 2024 before the presidential elections in russia, which will be held in March 2024," the department says.

It is noted that the russian command may also have sought to trigger the climax of the Ukrainian counteroffensive or to ensure that Ukrainian forces could not resume it early this winter. ISW writes, however, that the timing of events indicates that Ukraine decided to significantly reduce its counteroffensive operations on its initiative even before the start of russian offensive operations.

Analysts add that it remains unclear whether current russian offensive operations will create the conditions for russian forces to achieve operationally significant gains in the near future. Difficult weather conditions likely slowed the pace of the russian advance along much of the front, increased russian casualties, and further undermined the morale of russian soldiers.

It also highlights that the rate of russian casualties along the entire front line in Ukraine appears to be close to the rate of formation of russian forces, as previously observed, which likely indicates that russian forces are not accumulating idle reserves in preparation for larger winter operations.

According to the analysts, Ukrainian forces, on the contrary, seem to be using this period of difficult weather conditions and ongoing russian offensive operations to create and consolidate defensive positions in those areas of the front where they did not conduct counteroffensive operations, thus preserving forces and means for future offensive actions.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the russian occupying forces conducted offensive actions on seven axes, and 60 combat clashes took place. The Ukrainian defenders repelled most of the enemy attacks on the Avdiyivka, Bakhmut, and Mariyinka Axes.

On Friday, December 8, russian troops conducted offensive operations near Avdiyivka and captured the city's sewage treatment plants.