Wagner forces in Belarus do not pose military threat to Poland or Ukraine – ISW

The forces of the Wagner private military company located in the territory of the Republic of Belarus do not pose a threat to Poland or Ukraine. There is no indication that the mercenaries in Belarus have the heavy weapons necessary to mount a serious offensive.

This follows from a statement by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Thus, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Oleksandr Lukashenko, have intensified information operations aimed at the West, declaring that Ukraine's counteroffensive has allegedly failed and the Wagner PMC mercenaries pose a threat to Poland.

"Senior Western and Ukrainian leaders--and ISW--continue to assess that it is too early to evaluate Ukraine's counteroffensive since Ukraine still has significant uncommitted prepared forces and retains the ability to launch decisive operations at times and places of its choosing." the statement said.

Lukashenko and Putin also repeated the information operation that the Wagner PMC was a threat to Poland. The ISW noted that there is no indication that the Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weapons necessary to launch a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament, as a condition of the Putin-Lukashenka-Prygozhin agreement to end the armed insurgency was that the Wagner PMC was to hand over such weapons to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

In addition, on July 23, Maxar images of the Wagner PMC's main base in Tsel, Osypovychi District, Belarus, indicate that the vehicles parked at the base are mostly hundreds of cars, small trucks, and approximately 35 semi-trailers.

"Wagner forces in Belarus pose no military threat to Poland or Ukraine, for that matter, until and unless they are re-equipped with mechanized equipment. They pose no meaningful threat to NATO even then," ISW said.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Oleksandr Lukashenko, held a meeting with the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and stated that the Wagner mercenaries who moved to Belarus allegedly wanted to attack Poland.

Meanwhile, the tenth column of mercenary vehicles of the Wagner PMC had already crossed the border of Belarus.

Earlier, the commander of the United Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Lieutenant General Serhii Nayev, said that the measures regarding the location of the mercenaries of the Wagner PMC in Belarus are being carried out for the purpose of psychological pressure on the population.