Putin shows desire to preserve Wagner PMC as a fighting force, but without Prigozhin – ISW
Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note that the rhetoric of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin confirms that he wants to preserve the Wagner private military company as a fighting force, separating it from Yevgeny Prigozhin (its head).
This follows from a new issue of the analytical report by ISW researchers.
Analysts point out that Putin has said he intends to keep the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force, not split it up. However, he seeks to remove the founder of the PMC, Prigozhin, from the leadership and forces of Wagner. When asked directly about the future of Wagner as a combat unit, Putin continued to adhere to the absurd statement that there are no private military companies in Russia.
Putin confirmed that on June 29, he met with Prigozhin and 35 commanders of Wagner. He stated that he had offered Wagner fighters the opportunity to serve under the command of Wagner Commander (call sign "Sedoy"), who had been in command of Wagner's forces for the past 16 months. This reaffirms ISW's earlier assessment that the Kremlin is keen to keep the Wagner group as a cohesive fighting unit but at the same time separate it from Prigozhin.
Pentagon spokesman/ US Air Force Brigadier General Patrick S. Ryder stated on July 14 that the Wagner forces are not participating in military operations in Ukraine.
Analysts note that the Belarusian government and independent sources confirmed on July 14 that the instructors of the Wagner group, who were previously stationed in Africa, had arrived at the training grounds in Belarus.
Regarding the Ukrainian counteroffensive, experts confirmed that the Defense Forces continued operations in at least three areas of the front on July 14 and reportedly achieved success in some directions.
The report also notes that Russian authorities have detained former Russian Federal Security Service officer Mikhail Polyakov, who is reportedly the administrator of several popular Telegram channels covering the Kremlin's internal politics.
"Channels that speculate about internal Kremlin politics represent a specific niche of the Russian information space, and Polyakov's detention suggests that the Kremlin may intend to suppress speculations about internal politics following Wagner's rebellion," ISW experts summarize.
The review did not overlook the interview of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who admitted that Ukrainian troops are conducting a campaign to block Russian military facilities on the territory of Russia.
The Washington Post quoted Zaluzhnyi as saying that Ukraine was using domestically produced weapons to strike Russian military targets in Russia because of Western concerns about the weapons provided.
Zaluzhnyi also said that increased Ukrainian indirect fire could pin down Russian forces and minimize Ukrainian casualties but that Ukraine currently depends on ammunition from other countries for this purpose. He also confirmed Ukraine's intention to liberate Crimea.
Key takeaways from ISW for July 14:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin further indicated he intends to maintain the Wagner Group as a cohesive fighting force rather than breaking it up but seeks to separate Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin from Wagner leadership and forces.
- Belarusian government and independent sources confirmed on July 14 that Wagner Group instructors previously deployed in Africa previously arrived at training grounds in Belarus.
- Former 58th Combined Arms Army Commander Major General Ivan Popov's dismissal continues to generate pronounced ire against the Russian military command and the Russian civilian leadership.
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the frontline on July 14 and reportedly made gains in some areas.
- Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed drone strikes across Ukraine on July 14.
- Russian authorities detained former Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officer Mikhail Polyakov, who reportedly is the administrator of several popular telegram channels covering internal Kremlin politics.
- Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are waging an interdiction campaign against Russian military targets in Russia.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks and reportedly advanced around Bakhmut.
- Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizha Oblast border and reportedly made limited gains.
- Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in this direction.
- Russia continues efforts likely aimed at keeping high-ranking officers in their positions without needing special exemptions to retirement age limits.
- Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to consolidate administrative control of occupied territories by manipulating residence requirements and forcibly passportizing occupied populations.