Putin will not replace Shoigu so that it does not look like concession to Prigozhin - ISW

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will not replace the current Minister of Defense of the aggressor state of Russia Sergei Shoigu, so that it does not look like fulfilling the conditions of the leader of the Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin.

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The Kremlin is probably trying to signal that Shoigu will maintain his position so far and that Putin will not succumb to an attempt to blackmail Prigozhin," analysts said.

In particular, the ISW recalled that on June 26, the Russian Ministry of Defense publicly reported that Shoigu visited an unidentified forward command post of the Western group of Russian troops in Ukraine. It was his first public appearance since Prigozhin's "march of justice" on Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.

It was indicated that Shoigu met with the commander of the Western group of troops, operating on the Kupiansk-Svatove line in the Kharkiv and Luhansk Regions, Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov and set the task of preventing the advance of Ukrainian troops to the front line.

The report of the Institute for the Study of War emphasized that the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation did not visit the headquarters of the Russian Armed Forces in Rostov-on-Don after the capture of the city by mercenaries, and also did not otherwise contact the forces of the Russian Armed Forces in the south of Ukraine after the end of the armed uprising.

"It is not clear whether the Kremlin will replace Shoigu and Gerasimov, but it is unlikely that the Kremlin will immediately make such drastic changes of command, since this would mean a concession to Prigozhin's demands. ISW has previously assessed that Putin appreciates loyalty, and Shoigu and Gerasimov have demonstrated their loyalty to Putin," analysts said.

At the same time, the report noted that Russian sources continued to suggest possible changes in the Russian military command after the armed uprising of Prigozhin. In particular, Russian milbloggers began a campaign to promote the governor of the Tula region, Alexei Dyumin, instead of Shoigu as Russian Minister of Defense.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense of a missile strike on the Wagner PMC base. After that, the leader of the mercenaries announced a military coup in the Russian Federation and that the PMC intends to stop "the evil carried by the military leadership of the country."

It was reported that in Russia there was a confrontation between the Wagner PMC and the Ministry of Defense of the aggressor country of the Russian Federation.

On June 24, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko held talks with the leader of the PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin and allegedly agreed to stop the movement of mercenaries in Russia.

After that, Prigozhin said that he was finishing his so-called "march of justice" and returning his mercenaries to their locations.

On June 26, Prigozhin made the first statement on ending his "march of justice" and explained why he retreated 200 km from Moscow and stopped the uprising.

On the same day, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin recorded a video message and suggested that the Wagnerites either sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense or go to Belarus.