Ukraine's War Could Turn Into Frozen Conflict For Decades - Politico

The war of the aggressor state of Russia against Ukraine can turn into a frozen conflict that will last for many years or even decades. It was reported by Politico with reference to knowledgeable specialists from the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday, May 18.

The Biden administration is discussing the increasing likelihood of freezing the war in Ukraine and establishing potential lines, not official borders, that both the aggressor state and Ukraine would agree not to cross, the newspaper says. They believe that neither side of the conflict will agree to defeat, and the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive will not deal a fatal blow to Russia.

“A frozen conflict — in which fighting pauses but neither side is declared the victor nor do they agree that the war is officially over — also could be a politically palatable long-term result for the United States and other countries backing Ukraine. It would mean the number of military clashes would fall, the costs of supporting Kyiv also likely would drop, and public attention to the war would wane," it said.

In the medium term, many in the United States predict a stalemate during which battles will continue, but neither side will gain significant advantages, or a war of attrition in which both sides will try to inflict huge losses on each other in personnel and equipment, Politico notes. The publication reports that the longer the war drags on, the greater the likelihood of international pressure on the Russian Federation and Ukraine for a ceasefire, truce or other legal mechanism to stop, if not officially end the war.

Several Biden administration officials have confirmed that a prolonged freeze in fighting is one possibility the U.S. is preparing for, but the only reliable prediction is that Russia will not win over Ukraine.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on May 18, U.S. presidential adviser on national security Jake Sullivan said that he would not comment on whether Ukraine had launched an expected counteroffensive.

On May 11, Russian propagandists began to report the alleged beginning of a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

On May 9, Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, said that the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be considered as one battle that will solve everything.