Serhiy Lyamets: The reputation of NABU-SAPO-HACC has suffered a devastating blow

For two weeks in a row I have watched the anti-corruption vertical of NABU-SAPO-HACC being destroyed. Physically, of course, these bodies remained where they were. But they have been publicly disowned by people who have supported them for years. Moreover, they have equated fighters against corruption with ordinary "pro-corruption" security officials.

This has led to the near collapse of the reputation of the anti-corruption vertical as such.

This was triggered by two court cases - against former minister Andrii Pyvovarskyi and former Naftogaz CEO Andrii Koboliev. But they were followed over the weekend and this week by the election of the leadership of Ukraine's National Anti-Corruption Bureau. These are people with strong backgrounds who, by all accounts, are going to promote the interests of the Office of the President.

Everything is known about Pyvovarskyi and Koboliev. The case against the former minister has been opened for events that in no way constitute a crime. He is being charged with a crime for a collegial decision of the Cabinet of Ministers that was widely supported by the business community. It looks as if this case is being used to settle scores with Pyvovarskyi.

And recently NABU launched an investigation into the bonus he received for winning the Stockholm arbitration case against russia. The case went to the High Anti-Corruption Court, which initially ruled that the former Naftogaz chief's case did not merit investigation. But the HACC Appeals Chamber quickly overturned the decision and granted Koboliev a huge bail of UAH 229 million. The public should have taken this as a sign that Koboliev could be sent to prison.

And then Pandora's box seemed to open. Representatives of Ukraine's pro-Western business community spoke out. Opinion leaders and influential people said that the actions of the anti-corruption vertical showed signs of selectivity. They said that well-known state managers who had achieved obvious management successes (notably winning a case against Russia in Stockholm) were being targeted. The investment banker Ihor Mazepa even started collecting donations for Koboliev's bail. And after the bail was not raised, it was increased by one and a half times.

The situation for NABU-SAPO-HACC was terrible. For the first time, people who had been supporting the anti-corruption vertical for years said that the Koboliev case was politically coloured because the defendant did not have the best relations with the current government. The same can be said about the cases of Pyvovarskyi and Dykhne (the former head of Boryspil airport, who was sentenced to five years in prison for violating bureaucratic procedures).

The weekend got more and more heated. Three pro-government figures made it to the final of the competition to head NABU. All three turned out to be linked in one way or another either to the head of the Presidential Office, Andrii Yermak, or to his "power" deputy, Oleh Tatarov, or even to Ukraine's criminal circles. One of the three "won", but later the government "recommended" that all three be appointed to the top positions in the Bureau. This led many opinion leaders to conclude that the Office of the President had taken over the NABU. What commentators had been hinting at for a long time became almost official.

After the appointment of the "right" leaders, the NABU and the anti-corruption vertical in general were supposed to be more understandable and loyal to the authorities. Where Petro Poroshenko and his supporters failed, Volodymyr Zelenskyi succeeded during the war.

The anti-corruption vertical has thus been powerfully desacralized. It is no longer something separate, bright and clean in the dirty world of Ukrainian politics. It is no longer a counterweight to the traditional security forces. On the contrary, NABU-SAPO-HACC is now on a par with the traditionally corrupt MIA, SSU, PGO, BES and others.

In the public imagination, the anti-corruption vertical has almost been declassed. The best explanation for the trials of Pyvovarskyi, Smilianskyi, Shevchenko, Dykhne and Koboliev is the order of the conditional Office of the President. Instead of transparently punishing corrupt officials, the NABU-SAPO-HACC has become the same "power vertical" that Bolsheviks (crossed) and journalists talked so much about.

Recognise the importance of the moment. You have heard these words before. But before, they were said by bloggers who were conditionally in opposition. That is why the attacks on NABU-SAPO-HACC were perceived as a manifestation of the opposition and even as the "hand of moscow".

But now the anti-corruption vertical has been attacked by its "own" people - all those on whom it was based in terms of reputation. The conditional pro-Western lobby has publicly come out against an anti-corruption vertical that is no longer "theirs".

Now it is THEY, not some opposition opinion leaders, who are writing that brazen legal arbitrariness is being perpetrated in all cases. That in the case of Andrii Pyvovarskyi, the laws and collegial decisions of the government are being blatantly ignored. In the case of Kyrylo Shevchenko, the accused is not allowed to attend court hearings, a sham search is being organised and the investigation is being extended into the fifth year of the case. That the verdict against Yevhen Dykhne was motivated by personal revenge and settling scores.

After these authoritatives spoke, the high-profile NABU-SAPO-HACC cases took on a different flavour. Now the cases of Koboliev, Pyvovarskyi, Smilianskyi, Shevchenko and Dykhne no longer look like excesses, but like a new system. The accused are now perceived as "inconvenient" people with a particular opinion who were in conflict with the highest political authorities. Whether at the national level, like Koboliev and Shevchenko, or at the sectoral level, like Pyvovarskyi and Dykhne. Now their cases have a great chance of attracting Western attention. Legal nihilism will be studied on their example. They will be dismantled in order to win in the ECHR, to the shame of NABU and SAPO.

As always, saying "a" immediately brings "b" and "c" to life. In the midst of the criticism, opinion leaders have already informed the public that the government has launched a hunt for reformers and technocrats through the NABU-SAPO-HACC. It has become trendy to punish efficiency, reform and, above all, independence. The anti-corruption vertical is no longer a magical purifier, but a whip of power. A clear message is being sent to all officials who consider themselves subject to the law: any reform can be criminalised afterwards. The results that you are proud of today may turn into a list of charges tomorrow.

The worst is yet to come for NABU-SAPO-HACC. Ukraine's Western partners have not yet withdrawn their support. But the first strong step in that direction has been taken.

Is everything Koboliev's friends said is true? Of course not.

Definitely, the current protests have not come about because someone is closely monitoring the actions of the anti-corruption vertical. It's just that NABU-SAPO-HACCU are not targeting "foes" (who "should" be imprisoned), but their own people (who "should" not be touched). So there was a typical "our people are being beaten" clash. You have to admit that when the HACC sentenced the mayor of Poltava or a judge of the Dnipro district court, there was no such fuss.

However, I believe that Koboliev's actions deserve at least a thorough investigation. He should have been sacked in disgrace in 2019, as soon as Volodymyr Zelenskyi became president. Instead, he was given a contract extension and allowed to earn even more money (I do not rule out corruption).

In my opinion, Koboliev deserves a negative reputation assessment rather than the honour of a reformer and winner of the russia. For losses running into billions. For raising gas prices for the population. For trading russian gas under the guise of European gas. For a potentially corrupt pseudo-import scheme. For slashing domestic gas production, putting Ukraine at risk of having no heating in the winter of 2022/23. For manipulating reporting and balance sheets. For inflating administrative costs and further turning Naftogaz into a monopoly monster. And, of course, for the strange bonuses.

These actions deserve, first and foremost, dismissal from office. And perhaps an investigation. But NABU kept silent for many years. And now it has chosen a strange way - to investigate the bonus case.

We understand that Koboliev granted it himself. But from a legal point of view, this is a lose-lose situation, because everything was done in a legally correct way - by a collegial decision of the Naftogaz Supervisory Board. So, from a human point of view, Koboliev had no right to this bonus. But from a legal point of view, the case is a loser and will fall apart in court. That is why I do not believe that the government is determined to imprison Koboliev.

The cases of Shevchenko, Pyvovarskyi and others will also fall apart in court. Even the Dykhne case, I think, still has a chance.

So, what was the point of all this? Don't NABU-SAPO-HACCU realise that they are shooting themselves in the foot?

I have a strong version of why this is happening.

For a long time, we assumed that NABU-SAPO-HACC was completely independent. Or conditionally dependent - on Western partners, but not on the Ukrainian government. This was the basis of the anti-corruption vertical's image and the pro-Western lobby's reputation.

But then came the cases of Koboliev, Pyvovarskyi, Smilianskyi, Shevchenko and Dykhne. They look too much like political cases. Instead, we see that large-scale abuses in the customs service, the NBU and the tax system have gone unpunished. We also see that there is a certain circle of "untouchables" who hold key positions from which they "supervise" the security, tax and customs authorities.

This state of affairs does not benefit the Western partners or the image of NABU-SAPO-HACC. It benefits the Office of the President. Thus, there is a suspicion that the anti-corruption vertical is somehow fulfilling the "wishes" of the authorities.

If so, this is a dangerous trend. According to Koboliev's supporters, this is a kind of purging of the system of independent and effective people, with the encouragement of those being controlled. Big names are being used to take control of all processes under the guise of fighting corruption. In reality, this fight is being watered down and discredited, and business reforms and Ukraine's investment attractiveness are being massively attacked after the victory. These are steps towards an authoritarian kleptocracy and authoritarian-police tendencies in the country's governance. It is particularly surprising that this is happening now, when all the attention of Western partners is focused on military issues. This is what distinguishes Ukraine from russia.

But the danger lies elsewhere. An ingenious game has been played in which the NABU-SAPO-VAKS are attacking their conditionally "own" people. They are doing this unsuccessfully, because the cases are guaranteed to fail in court. But in the course of the cases, the reputation of the anti-corruption agencies will be destroyed. In fact, some of this has already happened. There are still a few cases like the one against Koboliev and Pyvovarskyi to finally bury the rather good idea of cleansing Ukraine of corruption.

Wasn't that the real purpose?