Bakhmut's Defense Is Strategically Sound, Despite Losses - ISW

Holding Bakhmut and the surrounding settlements of the Donetsk Region is a strategically sound effort, despite the losses that Ukraine is suffering while defending this part of the front.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts stress that Bakhmut by itself does not represent operational or strategic importance.

"But if Russian forces took it relatively quickly and cheaply, they could hope to expand operations in such a way as to force Ukraine to hastily build defensive positions in less favorable terrain," the report said.

The ISW notes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already used a similar defense model since the full-scale invasion, which made it possible to gradually wear down the Russian forces and force them to end operations in certain areas.

It is about the defense of Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration in the Luhansk Region. For several months, the troops of the Russian Federation tried to break through the effective defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

They were able to capture both cities only after Ukraine itself conducted a controlled withdrawal of troops. At the same time, this territorial acquisition quickly turned out to be operationally insignificant for the Russian troops.

The very operation of seizing Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, as well as reaching the administrative borders of the Luhansk Region, led to the stagnation of the offensive operations of the Russian Federation in Donbas.

The Institute for the Study of War suggests that the defense of Bakhmut will contribute to a similar result.

"Russian forces have been transferring manpower and equipment there since May 2022 and so far have not achieved any operationally significant successes that seriously threaten the Ukrainian defense of this area... Ukrainian forces are effectively pinning Russian troops, equipment and overall operational attention to Bakhmut, thereby restraining Russia's ability to conduct offensive actions in other parts of the theater of operations," the report said.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, on January 3, the British Ministry of Defense reported in its intelligence review that Russia had reduced activity near Bakhmut.

And on January 10, British intelligence assumed that Russian troops would not be able to surround Bakhmut, despite a series of tactical successes around the city.