World Bank Predicts Fall In Ukraine's GDP Of 45.1%, Rise In Poverty 11 Times In 2022

The World Bank predicts a fall in Ukraine's GDP by 45.1% and an 11-fold increase in poverty in 2022.

This is stated in the materials of the bank, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

It is noted that before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the bank expected the latter's economy to grow by 3.2% this year.

At the same time, the bank expects that in 2023, the recovery of the Ukrainian economy as a whole will be 2.1% (previously it was expected to grow by 3.5%).

According to the materials, modeling using the latest macroeconomic forecasts shows that the share of the population with incomes below the actual subsistence level (national poverty line) could reach 70% in 2022, compared to 18% in 2021.

In the absence of a massive post-war support package, this figure will still be above 60% by 2025.

As expected, private consumption in Ukraine this year will fall by 50%, while public consumption by 10%, and capital investment will fall by 57.5%.

Exports of goods and services will decrease by 80%, imports by 70%, while the public debt to GDP ratio will increase from 50.7% to 90.7%.

The inflation forecast is 15% with an increase to 19% next year.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects Ukraine's GDP to fall by 20% instead of growing by 3.5% in 2022.