Experts Lower 2020 GDP Forecast From 3.2% Growth To 4.2% Decline – Economy Ministry Consensus Forecast

Experts have lowered their GDP forecast for 2020 from a 3.2% growth to a 4.2% decline, according to a consensus forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade.

The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade announced this in a statement, the Ukrainian News Agency reports.

According to experts, Ukraine’s GDP will fall significantly – by 4.2% - in 2020.

The inflation rate will also rise to 7% in 2020 compared with 4.1% (December on December).

However, a 2.4% economic growth is forecast for 2021.

The inflation rate is forecast to slow down to 5.9% (December on December).

According to experts, the greatest threat to economic recovery in Ukraine is prolongation and tightening of domestic quarantine measures.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the Cabinet of Ministers released updated macroeconomic indicators for 2020, which are much worse than previously announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, in early April.

The GDP is projected to decline by 4.8% this year instead of the 3.9% decline previously announced by Shmyhal.

An 11.6% inflation rate (December on December) is expected instead of 8.7%.

The average annual increase of consumer prices is projected at 6.8%.

The nominal average salary is projected at UAH 10,706, enterprises’ profits at UAH 749.3 billion, and the unemployment rate at 9.4% (same as the previous unemployment forecast).