NBU assumes net outflow of 0.2 million people in 2026 and start of refugee returns in 2027

The National Bank projects a net population outflow of 0.2 million people in 2026 and the start of refugee returns beginning in 2027.

This is stated in a report by the NBU, according to the Ukrainian News agency.

It is noted that the situation on the labor market will gradually improve, in particular due to a reversal of negative migration trends in the coming years.

The NBU estimates that the net population outflow in 2026 will amount to approximately 0.2 million people. At the same time, the forecast assumptions are based on calculations regarding the “net” return of migrants, which will begin in 2027 (approximately 0.1 million people), and in 2028 this process will intensify (0.5 million people), particularly given the expected reduction in security risks and the overall improvement in the economic situation.

As economic activity recovers, the labor market will require a significant number of workers. High demand for labor will contribute to a further reduction in unemployment and support wage growth. According to the NBU’s forecast, unemployment will drop to 10% this year and will be around 9% in the coming years. Real wages will grow by more than 11% in 2026 and by 6–7% annually in 2027–2028.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the volume of private remittances decreased by 1.8% to USD 0.7 billion.