Business maintained positive assessments of its performance and improved them in annual terms
In April, business maintained positive assessments of its own economic performance, improving them in annual terms.
This is evidenced by the Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, with the exception of a forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.
For the second month in a row, enterprises of all surveyed sectors positively assessed their business activity. This was facilitated by stable international financial support, revival of consumer demand, budget financing for infrastructure restoration and road construction, as well as the seasonal factor. At the same time, rising fuel prices, increased business costs, further destruction of production and logistics capacities, still high exchange rate and inflation expectations, as well as a shortage of qualified personnel had a restraining effect on the economic activity of enterprises.
In April 2026, the BAEI was 51.7 compared to 52.7 in March 2026 (in April 2025 - 49.4).
Construction enterprises for the second time in a row had the highest assessment of their performance among all sectors, given the favorable weather conditions and budget funding for infrastructure restoration and road construction: the sectoral index in April increased to 55.6 compared to 55 in March and 47.3 in April 2025. Respondents expected a further increase in construction volumes, new orders, and purchases of raw materials and supplies. Builders were set to significantly increase the volume of purchases of contractor services against the background of expectations of further increases in their cost and deterioration in availability.
Industrial enterprises maintained positive assessments of the results of their current activities due to the gradual stabilization of the energy situation and the revival of consumer demand: the sectoral index in April was 51.5 compared to 51.2 in March (in April 2025 - 51.8). Industrialists continued to expect an increase, albeit at a slightly lower pace, in the volume of manufactured products and new orders for products, including export ones. Expectations regarding raw material stocks improved, and expectations regarding a decrease in the volume of work in progress softened. At the same time, respondents worsened their expectations regarding the balance of finished goods.
Trade enterprises also maintained positive assessments of their current economic results, but weakened them, given the significant increase in fuel prices and increased business costs: the sectoral index in April was 50.8 compared to 54 in March (in April 2025 - 51.2). Trade companies were less confident in expecting an increase in trade turnover and purchases of goods for sale. At the same time, unlike the previous month, a decrease in inventories / balances of goods for sale was expected. Assessments of a decrease in trade margins have strengthened.
Services enterprises for the second month in a row provided positive assessments of current business activity due to the gradual stabilization of the energy system and the revival of domestic demand: the sectoral index in April was 52 compared to 52.8 in March and was significantly higher than the indicator in April 2025 (46.3). Respondents were still set on increasing the volume of services provided, new orders for services, and services in the process of being performed.
Respondents from most sectors predicted a further increase in prices / tariffs for their own products / services, given the expected significant acceleration in the growth rates of purchase prices, as well as prices for raw materials and materials. Only trade enterprises expected a slowdown in the growth rates of the cost of goods purchased for sale.
The situation on the labor market has softened somewhat. Construction and trade respondents were optimistic about the total number of employees, while industrial and service enterprises maintained their cautious assessments.
The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from April 2 to 22, 2026. 585 enterprises participated in it. Among the surveyed enterprises, 43.8% were industrial companies, 25.6% were service enterprises, 24.6% were trade, and 6% were construction; 32% of respondents are large enterprises, 29.1% are medium-sized, 39% are small.
35.6% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 8.5% carry out only export operations, 17.8% carry out only import operations, 38.1% do not carry out foreign economic operations.
As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinion of the respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.
The Monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. It is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.
Based on the respondents' answers, monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month. An index value of 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.