Even temporary suspension of US sanctions saved russia from failure on frontline and in economy - ISW

The temporary lifting of US sanctions against russia helped the kremlin avoid the need to make difficult decisions in 2026 and 2027.

This is the opinion of analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, as evidenced by a new ISW report.

The rise in oil prices and US President Donald Trump's decision to ease sanctions against russia will give the aggressor country more flexibility. They will also contribute to the development of the russian domestic economy, the formation of the occupiers' armed forces and the strengthening of the military-industrial base.

"Russia has already earned an estimated USD 1.3 to USD 1.9 billion from taxes on oil exports after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz," ISW writes, citing Financial Times (FT) publications.

According to the estimates published by the newspaper, by the end of March 2026, russia could earn from USD 3.3 to USD 4.9 billion in total additional revenues. But this is on the condition that the average price of russian Ural crude oil will be around USD 70-80 per barrel, and not remain at the level of the average for the previous two months.

Today, the trend continues, with russian oil trade reaching a new level of income. Not so long ago, in February 2026, russian exports of oil and oil products fell to their lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Thus, the global oil shock caused by the US war in Iran could bring financial benefits to russia. In particular, it will put an end to the months-long decline in oil revenues. At the same time, this will allow the kremlin to continue financing the war against Ukraine in the medium term, experts of the Institute for the Study of War summarize.

Earlier, ISW estimated that the deteriorating economic conditions would lead the russian government to take politically unpopular and economically suboptimal measures. Among them: an increase in the value-added tax (VAT) and a cut in the key interest rate.

Analysts pointed out that the russian federation faces problems with the formation of the armed forces and the inability to pay expensive one-time bonuses for conscription into the armed forces.