Refugee return may start in 2027 - NBU

The National Bank suggests that the net return of refugees may begin in 2027ю

This is evidenced by the data of the NBU, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

It is noted that the situation on the labor market will gradually improve, in particular due to the reversal of negative migration trends in the coming years.

The NBU assumes that due to the deterioration of the security situation, the net outflow of the population in 2026 will be about 0.2 million people. It is assumed that the net return of migrants will begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people), and in 2028 this process will intensify (0.5 million people), in particular, given the expected reduction in security risks and the overall improvement in the economic situation.

At the same time, the labor market will require a significant number of employees amid the country's reconstruction and investment growth. High demand for labor will further reduce unemployment and support wage growth. According to the NBU's forecast, real wages will grow by 7% in 2026 (as in 2025), and by about 6% annually in 2027-2028.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the volume of private remittances decreased by 14.7% in 2025 and amounted to USD 8 billion.

Salaries received by Ukrainians from abroad decreased by 15.6%; at the same time, other private remittances received through official channels were at the level of the previous year: they decreased by only 0.6%.