ICU predicts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 and hryvnia exchange rate of 44.3 UAH/USD at end of year
ICU analysts forecast GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 and the hryvnia exchange rate of 44.3 UAH/USD at the end of the year.
The Ukrainian News agency was informed about this in the ICU.
It is noted that the EU's decision to provide a loan to Ukraine guarantees the sustainability of the prerequisites for maintaining macroeconomic stability, adequate financing of the budget deficit and replenishment of the NBU reserves in 2026 and 2027. Given the current balance of security risks, the loan from the EU lays the groundwork for the successful implementation of the new IMF-Ukraine cooperation program at least for the next two years. However, to fully meet its defense needs, Ukraine will need additional bilateral loans and grants from other countries.
Economic growth will slow down next year, primarily due to damage to energy and transportation infrastructure caused by russian attacks. Electricity shortages and difficulties with exporting goods by sea will cause temporary downtime of large industries. An additional deterrent will be the gradual reduction in the state budget deficit and fiscal stimulus, as well as business hesitancy to make capital investments due to high security risks. As in previous years after the start of the full-scale invasion, private household consumption will remain the key driver of economic growth. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2026.
It is noted that the growth rate of consumer prices (inflation) will continue to slow down rapidly - annual inflation will decline monthly at least until May. In the second half of the year, it will start accelerating again, mainly due to a low base, and by the end of 2026 it will reach 6-7%
The economy will continue to operate under conditions of record high external imbalances (excluding external financial assistance). The key factors behind the imbalances are the high foreign trade deficit due to the rapid growth of imports and the high demand for foreign currency by the population. However, external financial assistance will continue to be sufficiently included in the NBU's reserves and will be used by the NBU to cover the foreign exchange market deficit in virtually unlimited amounts. The NBU continues to maintain a low propensity for gradual hryvnia devaluation. Nevertheless, a significant slowdown in inflation, rising external imbalances, and, most likely, IMF recommendations will prompt the NBU to slightly weaken the hryvnia to the dollar over the course of the year. The company expects the exchange rate to reach 44.3 UAH/USD at the end of 2026.
The NBU's reserves will continue to remain at record levels thanks to funding from the EU. They will provide an adequate protective buffer in case additional risks to macroeconomic stability materialize.
As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, in July-September 2025, real gross domestic product (GDP), according to preliminary data, increased by 2.1% compared to the same period in 2024.