In August, actual inflation was lower than NBU forecast

The actual inflation trajectory in August turned out to be lower than the forecast published in the July Inflation Report, mainly influenced by the expansion of the supply of agricultural products of the new harvest.

This was announced by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukrainian News Agency reports.

It is noted that fundamental price pressure also weakened under the influence of the NBU's monetary policy measures and the gradual reduction of pressure from the labor market.

The trajectory of core inflation was close to the forecast.

The annual growth rate of prices for raw food products continued to slow down - to 23.9% y/y.

Prices for individual vegetables decreased in annual terms or significantly slowed down the growth rate due to the arrival of higher harvests than last year.

The growth rate of fruit prices also began to slow down, but remained significant due to crop losses in the spring due to frost.

The rate of increase in the price of flour and some cereals also decreased.

In contrast, the acceleration of the growth of prices for all types of meat continued due to the increase in cost prices and the decrease in the livestock population.

Core inflation continued to decrease - to 11.4%.

The increase in the price of processed products slowed down to 17.7% y/y. In particular, the growth in prices for dairy products, oil, bread and bakery products slowed down.

The growth in the cost of non-food goods also slowed down - to 2.8% y/y. The decline in prices for clothing and footwear deepened.

Services inflation slightly accelerated - to 14.1%, which was primarily due to an increase in tariffs for mobile communication services. Financial services, taxi services and health insurance also became more expensive.

Instead, inflation for the vast majority of other services slowed down.

The growth rate of administratively regulated prices slowed down slightly - to 10.8% y/y.

This dynamics was explained by a decrease in the rate of increase in the price of alcoholic beverages. Instead, the acceleration of the growth rate of tobacco products continued.

The growth rate of fuel prices slowed down - to 6.0%.

This dynamics is due to both a slight decrease in world oil prices and the strengthening of the hryvnia against the euro.

Overall inflation has been slowing down for three consecutive months somewhat faster than expected.

At the same time, the dynamics of its core component is quite close to the NBU forecast.

In the coming months, the trend towards a decrease in inflation is expected to continue.

This will be facilitated primarily by the further reflection of the effects of the arrival of new crops and the NBU's measures to maintain sufficient attractiveness of hryvnia assets and stability of the foreign exchange market.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in August 2025, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%.

Compared to August 2024, in August 2025, consumer prices increased by 13.2%.

In January-August 2025, inflation was 6.0%.