Economic activity in August held back by war, tariffs and shortage of qualified personnel - NBU survey

In August, businesses maintained restrained assessments of the results of their own economic activity, but improved them both compared to the previous month and in annual terms.

This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the National Bank calculates monthly, except for a forced break in March-May 2022, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

Enterprises of all sectors participating in the surveys demonstrated a softening of assessments.

The drivers of the positive momentum were brisk consumer demand, energy stability, slowing inflation and seasonal factors. However, further destruction of production capacities and infrastructure, significant costs for restoration, raw materials and labor, increased electricity tariffs for businesses and a shortage of qualified personnel slowed down economic activity and negatively affected respondents' assessments.

In August 2025, the BAEI increased to 49.0 from 48.3 in July 2025 and was higher than the level in August 2024 (48.4).

Construction enterprises positively assessed their current economic performance for the fourth consecutive month and were the most optimistic among respondents due to stable domestic demand and seasonal factors: the sectoral index in August was 54.0 compared to 50.6 in July 2025 (in August 2024 - 50.7).

Builders expected a further increase in construction volumes, new orders and purchases of raw materials and materials. Against the background of the expected slowdown in the growth rate of the cost of contractors' services, respondents were set for a further increase in the volume of purchases of their services.

The softening of restrained assessments of the availability of contractors continued.

For the sixth consecutive month, trade enterprises maintained positive assessments of the results of their current activities due to lively consumer sentiment and an expansion of the supply of goods due to the active arrival of the new harvest: the sectoral index in August was 51.8 compared to 51.2 in July 2025 (in August 2024 - 50.4).

Trade companies continued to expect an increase in the volume of trade turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale, but assessed stocks/balances of goods for sale more pessimistically than in the previous month. Respondents, as before, expected a decrease in trade margins.

Industrial enterprises maintained restrained assessments of their performance due to further destruction of production capacities and significant costs for restoration, raw materials and labor: the sectoral index in August was 48.7 compared to 48.6 in July 2025 and August 2024.

Industrialists continued to expect an increase in the volume of manufactured products and the volume of new orders for products.

At the same time, pessimistic assessments regarding the volume of new export orders for products, the volume of work in progress, as well as the balance of finished products, softened. Instead, a further decrease in the volume of raw materials and materials stocks was expected.

Service sector enterprises softened somewhat, but retained the most restrained assessments of the results of their business activity, given the complex and high-cost logistics, the increase in the cost of electricity and the shortage of qualified personnel: the sectoral index in August was 47.0 (in July 2025 - 45.8, in August 2024 - 46.5). Respondents expected a decrease in the volume of services provided, while they assessed the volume of new orders for services and services in the process of execution less restrainedly.

Against the background of the expected slowdown in the growth rate of purchase prices, construction, trade and service enterprises were set for a more moderate increase in prices for their own products / services, while industrial enterprises expected them to accelerate slightly.

The situation on the labor market remains heterogeneous. Only construction respondents were set to increase the total number of employees, enterprises in other sectors expected a reduction in personnel.

The monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from August 4 to 21, 2025. 578 enterprises participated in the survey. Among the surveyed enterprises, 42.7% were industrial companies, 26.5% were service companies, 24.6% were trade companies, 6.2% were construction companies; 29.8% of respondents were large enterprises, 28.7% were medium-sized enterprises, and 41.5% were small.

32.0% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.0% were only export operations, 18.5% were only import operations, and 40.5% were not engaged in foreign economic operations.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the survey results reflect only the opinions of respondents - heads of enterprises, and not the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine.

The monthly business activity expectations index is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated based on surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy regarding changes in their performance indicators compared to the previous month.

Monthly expectations indices are calculated based on the respondents' answers business activity - sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month. The index value at 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the index value exceeds the neutral level.