Over 40% of small and medium-sized businesses in Ukraine assess their condition as unsatisfactory or bad - study

The UBI (Ukrainian Business Index) business activity index as of mid-2025 is 36.1 points out of 100 possible. There is a downward trend compared to 38.6 in March 2025 and 36.9 at the beginning of the year, which indicates negative business expectations.

This is stated in the latest report on the state and needs of micro, small and medium-sized businesses (MSMEs), conducted within the framework of the project "Transformational Recovery for Human Security in Ukraine" with the financial support of the Government of Japan, implemented by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Ukraine and implemented by Advanter Group together with the Innovation Development Center, the Entrepreneurship and Export Development Office, and the national project Diia.Business.

The main factor in the deterioration of the business situation is the reduction of the number of employees: 33% of respondents reported a decrease in the number of personnel in the company, while only 6% recorded its growth. As a result, a moderate reduction in production volumes was recorded: 48% of enterprises reported a decrease in production volumes, while 32% kept them at the level of the previous period.

The assessment of the financial and economic condition of SMEs remains restrainedly pessimistic. Only 16.8% of respondents characterize the current condition of their company as good or excellent, 31.4% assess it as satisfactory, while 41.8% - as unsatisfactory or bad.

The weighted average forecasted revenue of SMEs at the end of 2025 is 91.3% of the 2024 level, which indicates a decrease in expectations for business activity. At the same time, according to the results of the first half of 2025, the business demonstrates results comparable to the same period in 2024 (98.2%). This indicates a generally stable, but moderately negative assessment of the prospects for the second half of 2025.