Slight weakening of hryvnia exchange rate expected in H2 - Dragon Capital forecast

Dragon Capital expects a slight weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar in the second half of this year.

This is stated in the company's message, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"The high level of reserves will allow the National Bank to continue using the exchange rate policy to achieve the inflation target, while maintaining macro-financial and external stability. We continue to expect a slight weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar in the second half of this year against the background of lower inflation and a seasonal increase in demand for foreign currency," the message says.

The company noted that the hryvnia exchange rate is forecast at 43.5 UAH/USD by the end of 2025 and 46 UAH/USD by the end of 2026 in the "protracted war" scenario.

Given the strengthening of inflationary pressure and the improvement of the balance of payments in the "sustainable truce" scenario, the NBU is expected to keep the hryvnia stable against the US dollar at around 44 UAH/USD.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, Dragon Capital in May forecast a decrease in inflation in the summer of this year.

In addition, Dragon Capital expected the National Bank of Ukraine to return to a controlled and gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of the year.