Inflation exceeds NBU forecast due to weather conditions

Inflation exceeded the National Bank forecast due to weather conditions.

This is stated in the NBU report, Ukrainian News Agency reports.

"Inflation peaked in May and returned to decline in June, as predicted by the NBU. However, overall inflation was higher than the April macroeconomic forecast primarily due to the impact of weather conditions. It is expected that the decline in inflation will continue in the second half of the year," the report says.

The return of inflation to decline in the summer was expected, in particular due to last year's high base of comparison of administratively regulated prices.

However, the actual pace of inflation decline turned out to be slower than predicted in the Inflation Report for April 2025.

The deviation from the forecast was primarily due to a more significant increase in the price of raw food products in recent months against the background of a reduction in their supply due to spring frosts.

At the same time, fundamental inflationary pressure was somewhat weaker than forecast, although it remained significant against the background of high business costs for raw materials and labor and brisk consumer demand.

The growth rate of administratively regulated prices decreased significantly - to 10.9%.

Such dynamics were primarily due to the high comparison base of the previous year. Thus, in June 2024, there was a one-time increase in electricity tariffs.

The growth rate of prices for raw food products continued to increase - to 28.7%.

The growth rate of prices for certain stone fruits, apples and berries accelerated significantly due to the impact of adverse weather conditions on their supply.

All types of meat rose faster due to rising costs, a decrease in livestock and an increase in external prices. In contrast, the pace of vegetable price increases slowed significantly due to an increase in the supply of the new harvest and active imports.

Fuel prices accelerated to 3.1%.

This dynamics is primarily due to an increase in the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel against the background of high volatility in world oil prices and the weakening of the hryvnia against the euro. In contrast, price pressure on the liquefied petroleum gas market decreased due to excess supplies.

As Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, in June 2025, consumer prices increased by 0.8%.

Compared to June 2024, in June 2025, consumer prices increased by 14.3%.

In January-June 2025, inflation was 6.5%.