Moscow is trying to disrupt peace talks and wants to divide Ukraine and US – ISW
The russian authorities have intensified information attacks, trying to undermine the possibility of peace talks with Ukraine. According to analysts, the kremlin is purposefully spreading narratives that are intended to divide Kyiv and Washington, discredit Ukraine and justify the continuation of the war.
This is stated in the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of March 21, 2025, the Ukrainian News agency reports.
ISW analysts emphasize that the kremlin is intensifying information campaigns, accusing Ukraine of war crimes, attacks on russian infrastructure and violation of agreements with the West. In particular, russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that the US must explain how it will "manage" Ukraine after the alleged Ukrainian strikes on russian energy facilities.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also used the explosion at a gas distribution station in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, russia, to discredit Kyiv, saying that Ukraine’s denial of involvement “shows how much it can be trusted.”
In addition, the russian authorities are trying to create the impression that Kyiv is deliberately violating Western restrictions, in particular regarding the moratorium on attacks on russian energy infrastructure. ISW emphasizes that in this way moscow is trying to sow doubts about Ukraine’s reliability among Western allies and undermine their trust.
On March 21, the russian Investigative Committee published data on criminal cases against Ukrainian military personnel, accusing them of attacks on the Kursk nuclear power plant and civilians. ISW analysts believe that these actions are part of a broader kremlin strategy to create the impression that Ukraine threatens stability in the region and force the US to reconsider its support for Kyiv.
"ISW recently assessed that the Kremlin was preparing to intensify narratives accusing Ukrainian forces of war crimes in Kursk Oblast to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support for Ukraine, and spoil or delay talks about temporary ceasefire proposals," the Institute's daily report states.
The ISW noted that throughout the full-scale war, the kremlin consistently promoted these narratives, trying to divert attention from russia's actions.
The analysts recalled that russian troops committed numerous war crimes on the battlefield and in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, militarized and endangered the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The report also recalled that on February 14, a russian Shahed drone damaged the shelter over the destroyed fourth reactor of the Chornobyl NPP.
“The Kremlin may seek to leverage its narratives falsely portraying Ukraine as recklessly endangering Russian NPPs and being an unsafe operator of the ZNPP to spoil US-Ukrainian bilateral talks, given recent US and Ukrainian official statements about possible US involvement in Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including the Russian-occupied ZNPP,” ISW said.
Key ISW takeaways for March 21:
- The kremlin is weaponizing ongoing ceasefire negotiations and deliberately misrepresenting the status and terms of a future ceasefire agreement in order to delay and undermine negotiations for a settlement to the war.
- Kremlin officials are leveraging narratives about Ukrainian strikes and combat operations in russian territory to justify rejecting peace negotiations with Ukraine and continuing the war to a domestic russian audience.
- US Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated that US officials will conduct "shuttle diplomacy" to engage bilaterally with both Ukrainian and russian delegations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
- Russia continues to strengthen its bilateral relations with North Korea, despite growing warnings from the US against deeper russian-North Korean cooperation.
- Russian officials also continue to deepen ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC).
- Ukraine's European allies continue efforts to provide Ukraine with military assistance and bolster Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in the Sumy Region and near Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
- Ukrainian and Western defense officials estimated that the russian monthly casualty rate is between 20,000 and 35,000 servicemembers.