NASA increases probability of collision of asteroid 2024 YR4 with Earth

The probability of a collision of asteroid 2024 YR4 with Earth in 2032 has increased from 2.6% to 3.1%, or about 1 in 32. In December, the probability was estimated at 1 in 1,000.

This was reported by NASA.

The asteroid 2024 YR4, whose diameter is from 40 to 90 meters, was first recorded on December 27, 2024 thanks to the ATLAS telescope installed in Chile. According to NASA calculations, if the asteroid falls on Earth, its shock wave will be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT, which is 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

NASA specialists have already determined the possible area of ​​​​the asteroid's fall. The potential impact zone includes eight megacities, including Bogota (Colombia), Lagos (Nigeria), and the Indian cities of Mumbai and Chennai. In total, more than 110 million people live there.

Scientists will continue to observe the asteroid until April 2025, after which it will disappear from the visibility zone. In March, the James Webb Space Telescope will be connected to the study, which should more accurately determine the size of the celestial body. The next opportunity to study the asteroid and the trajectory of its movement will appear in 2028. The celestial body will approach the planet in 2032.

2024 YR4 is so far the only asteroid with a probability of collision with the Earth exceeding one percent. NASA assigned it a 3 out of 10 score on the Turin scale, which shows the degree of danger posed by a celestial object.

As previously reported, scientists announced the discovery of a new asteroid. It turned out that it is the remains of Musk's Tesla, which was launched into space.