Deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus does not increase risk of strikes on Ukraine or NATO countries – ISW

According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the deployment of the Oreshnik system in Belarus does not increase the risk of medium-range ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine or NATO countries.

"The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework," ISW points out.

According to American analysts, russian ruler vladimir putin and self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko signed a new agreement on security guarantees within the Union State at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State in Minsk on December 6.

Lukashenko has publicly asked putin to allow russia to deploy Oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus, provided that the Belarusian military-political leadership identifies the targets of the system if the missile is ever launched from Belarusian territory.

Putin responded to Lukashenko's request by stating that russia could deploy Oreshnik systems in Belarus by mid-2025.

Putin noted that the new security treaty allows russia and Belarus to use "all available forces and means" within the framework of russia's and Belarus' mutual defense commitments.

"The deployment of Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus would further increase Russia’s military footprint in Belarus and advance the Kremlin’s longstanding strategic effort to erode Belarusian sovereignty and de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework," ISW noted.

The report noted that russia and Belarus have also signed 10 other Union State documents, including the Union State security concept, a resolution on uniform rules in the field of consumer protection, a resolution on joint measures to combat smuggling, and an agreement on the formation of a common electricity market.

“Lukashenko is likely trying to preserve Belarusian sovereignty against Moscow by advocating that Belarus control Russian weapons deployed in Belarus – an endeavor Lukashenko has historically failed at,” the ISW stressed.

Lukashenko has publicly asked for Minsk to be given the right to decide how to use Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, likely in an attempt to preserve Belarusian sovereignty within the Union State and strengthen his negotiating position against further integration within the Union State.

However, he also noted that russian servicemen will continue to operate the Oreshnik system in Belarus. This, the review says, indicates that Moscow will retain control over any Oreshnik systems deployed in Belarus.

Analysts say that the deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus does not increase the immediate risks of intermediate-range ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine or NATO countries, despite the kremlin’s increased nuclear weapons rhetoric.

“Putin once again tried to flaunt the Oreshnik missile and Russian missile capabilities during the Union State Supreme State Council meeting as part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation,” ISW believes.

According to ISW, the kremlin’s constant flaunting of the Oreshnik system is unlikely to indicate the development of particularly new russian long-range strike weapons.

Key ISW takeaways for December 6:

Russian forces have not yet evacuated the russian naval base in Tartus, Syria as of December 6, but it remains unclear whether russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory.

Russia appears to be redeploying at least some of its air defense assets that were defending russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, but the reason for this redeployment remains unclear at this time.

The kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework.

Lukashenko is likely trying to preserve Belarusian sovereignty against moscow by advocating that Belarus control russian weapons deployed in Belarus - an endeavor Lukashenko has historically failed at.

The deployment of the Oreshnik missiles to Belarus does not significantly increase the immediate risks of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strikes against Ukraine or NATO states despite the kremlin’s intensified nuclear saber-rattling.

The kremlin is scapegoating former Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov for russia's failure to adequately respond to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used his interview with an American media personality to reiterate kremlin talking points that are intended to shape American foreign policy and achieve a U.S.-russia reset detrimental to U.S. interests and on the kremlin's terms.

Western sanctions are reportedly degrading the overall quality of russian drones, indicating that targeted sanctions are having some negative effects on the russian defense industrial base (DIB).

Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.

The russian military continues to lose parts of its officer corps, a resource that is difficult to replenish, as part of russia's ever-increasing casualties.