ISW analyzes CIA Director’s statements regarding russia's nuclear threats

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the words of the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) William Burns regarding the kremlin's nuclear threats and noted that russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.

This is stated in the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of September 8, 2024, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

Thus, the director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, warned the West against worrying about the russian "nuclear saber-rattling".

The ISW recalled that it had long been identified as part of the kremlin's efforts to promote self-restraint in the West and to influence key points in the West's political debate regarding support for Ukraine.

Analysts noted that Burns said during a discussion with Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) chief Richard Moore on September 7 that russian president vladimir putin would continue to periodically threaten direct confrontation with the West, but that these threats should not intimidate the West.

In particular, Burns said that according to CIA estimates, russian forces could be considering the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the fall of 2022, and that he was in contact with the director of russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, about this.

The CIA's assessment of russia's possible readiness to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the fall of 2022 is related to the intensification of russian rhetoric about nuclear confrontation against the background of successful Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Kherson and Kharkiv Regions.

Analysts emphasized that this rhetoric was more likely to be part of a routine information operation aimed at deterring Western security assistance to Ukraine than an indication of russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons.

"The Kremlin has repeatedly invoked thinly veiled threats of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West during key moments in Western political discussions about further military assistance to Ukraine, such as in the fall of 2022, to induce fear among decision makers. ISW continues to assess that Russia is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere,” the analysts summarized.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, meanwhile, the head of the CIA, Burns, sees the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk Oblast as a "significant tactical achievement." It is still too early to say how long the Armed Forces will control the territory of the russian federation, the head of MI-6 Moore is convinced. They promised support to Ukraine.