ISW names factors necessary for AFU’s successful counteroffensive

Russia is beginning to experience a lack of weapons and personnel, which, together with Western support, will eventually allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct successful counteroffensive operations.

This is stated in the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as of July 24, 2024, the Ukrainian News agency reports.

The Institute refers to the interview of the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi with The Guardian, where he noted that over the past two and a half years, the russian military has significantly increased its human and material resources for the war against Ukraine.

However, the report states that these statements by Syrskyi do not indicate a sharp increase in the presence of russian troops in Ukraine, but rather reflect the existing shortage of personnel and material resources, which Ukrainian forces have been facing for more than two years.

The Commander-in-Chief also noted that the Ukrainian military command is focusing on solving problems with the supply of weapons to protect against protracted offensive operations of the russian federation. He emphasized that the Ukrainian forces are successfully conducting defense operations, despite the material disparity between the russian and Ukrainian forces.

According to ISW analysts, in the medium and long term, russia will no longer be able to increase the number of personnel and equipment for the war against Ukraine.

The Institute notes that russia is exhausting its limited stockpile of Soviet-era weapons. However, it is not clear whether the russian defense industry will be able to produce enough equipment to withstand the high level of losses even under conditions of further economic mobilization.

"Further economic mobilization will likely be deeply unpopular among Russians who are largely apathetic towards the war so long as it does not impact their daily life, and the policy change could strain domestic support for the war," the report said.

ISW is convinced that the kremlin will probably have to further mobilize the russian economy and defense industry to maintain the current pace of operations in the medium and long term.

At the same time, Syrskyi’s statements prove that over the past two and a half years, Ukrainian forces have successfully defended and liberated the territory in the face of the russian army, which has significant manpower and material superiority over the Armed Forces.

"ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces can contest the battlefield initiative and eventually set conditions to conduct both limited and large-scale counteroffensive operations with timely and appropriate Western security assistance," the report of the Institute for the Study of War said.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the first time in a long time commented on the losses of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the war against russia.

Meanwhile, the new Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the United Kingdom, General Sir Roly Walker, believes that russia may need 5 years to achieve its stated goals in Ukraine.