ISW names strategic goal of russia during offensive in Kharkiv Region

Russian offensive operations along the border in the Kharkiv Region probably have a strategic goal to attract and consolidate Ukrainian forces on this axis in order to enable russian advance to other areas of the east of Ukraine.

This is stated in the text of the russian Offensive Campaign Assessment as of May 10, 2024 of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from Washington.

According to military analysts, russian troops launched an offensive operation along the russian-Ukrainian border in the north of the Kharkiv Region on the morning of May 10 and achieved significant tactical successes.

Russian troops are probably conducting the initial phase of the offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv Region, which has limited operational goals, but is aimed at achieving a strategic effect - the diversion of military and equipment from other critical areas of the front in the east of Ukraine.

Currently, russian troops have launched two limited operations in the area, one north of Kharkiv towards Lyptsi and the other northeast of Kharkiv near Vovchansk.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that russian armored assault groups of unspecified numbers attempted to breach the Ukrainian defenses near Vovchansk early in the morning, and that fighting in the area continued after Ukrainian forces repelled russian attacks.

Data from NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) of May 10 indicate that fierce battles were likely fought in and near the settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna and Borysivka.

Reuters reported that a senior Ukrainian military source said russian troops had advanced at least a kilometer inland near Vovchansk. The ISW estimates that russian forces advanced towards Vovchansk, but did not see sufficient evidence to assess the approximate course of hostilities in the immediate vicinity of the area.

Russian troops are likely to use their tactical bridgehead in the north of the Kharkiv Region in the coming days to intensify offensive operations and conduct the initial phase of offensive actions, which probably aim to push Ukrainian troops from the border with the Belgorod Region and advance so as to reach Kharkiv with artillery.

However, the limited efforts that russian forces are now using do not indicate that they are conducting a large-scale offensive operation to surround and capture the city of Kharkiv.

Key takeaways of the ISW for May 10:

- Russian forces began an offensive operation along the russian-Ukrainian border in the northern Kharkiv Region on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains. Russian forces are likely conducting the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in the east of Ukraine.

- Russian forces will likely leverage their tactical foothold in the northern Kharkiv Region in the coming days to intensify offensive operations and pursue the initial phase of an offensive effort likely intended to push back Ukrainian forces from the border with the Belgorod Region and advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.

- The limited efforts that russian forces are currently conducting do not suggest that russian forces are immediately pursuing a large-scale sweeping offensive operation to envelop, encircle, and seize Kharkiv City, however.

- Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv international border likely have the strategic objective of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces to this axis to enable russian advances in other areas of the east of Ukraine.

- ISW continues to assess that russian forces will likely struggle to seize Kharkiv City should they aim to do so.

- Russian forces likely decided to launch offensive operations along the international border area to take the best advantage of the relatively brief time left before Western aid arrives at the Ukrainian frontline at scale.

- Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk stated that the war in Ukraine will enter a critical phase in the next two months and commented on recent russian advances around Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka.

- U.S. President Joe Biden approved up to USD 400 million worth of military assistance for Ukraine as part of the Presidential Drawdown Authority Fund on May 10.

- Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on the night of May 9 to 10 against an oil refinery in the Kaluga Region that Ukrainian forces previously struck in March 2024.

- Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is retaining his position in the russian government for russian president vladimir putin's new term of office, and there have been speculations but no confirmations of changes to putin's cabinet.

- U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb stated that U.S. defense officials partnered with SpaceX to stop the russian military's unauthorized use of Starlink internet terminals in frontline areas of Ukraine.

- Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Donetsk City and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Region border area.

- Russian and Belarusian authorities continue to illegally deport Ukrainian citizens, including children, to russia and Belarus.