Ukraine's ability to liberate its entire territory depends on numerous future decisions - ISW

Ukraine's ability to regain all of its territory in the long term depends on numerous future decisions in the West, the Kremlin, and Kyiv, and any discussion that treats the prospects of Ukrainian victory or defeat as predetermined outcomes ignores how all parties involved could dynamically change the course of the war in Ukraine.

This is stated in the next daily analytical release from the experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Western media continue to report that some US officials have resumed discussing the idea of a "border freeze", as the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to return all of its territory.

Military analysts noted that proponents of the current package have not argued that it alone would allow Ukraine to liberate all of the occupied territory, and that discussion of possible end states of the war is premature since President Joe Biden signed the new aid bill into law just two days ago.

US military aid is currently on its way to Ukraine and will take several weeks to reach frontline units and have a tangible impact on the battlefield.

Ukrainian forces will first have to use US assistance to stabilize the front line and stop the russian advance, particularly in the direction of Avdiyivka and Chasiv Yar, in the coming weeks.

The scale and intensity of russia's projected summer 2024 offensive operation, likely to begin in June, also remains unclear, and russia's military command may be actively evaluating and revising plans for its summer offensive effort to account for clashes with better-equipped Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian forces will need to defend against a russian summer offensive effort and prevent russian forces from making significant operational progress during the summer months before they can challenge the initiative and conduct a counteroffensive operation later in 2024 or 2025.

The Ukrainian forces must also solve current problems with training new personnel, equipping new units and rehabilitating old units. The precise timing of these efforts, which will likely play a significant role in determining the schedule of Ukraine's future counteroffensive operations, remains unclear.

According to ISW, sufficient and consistent Western assistance will be critical to Ukraine's future counteroffensive efforts, although the US and the West will likely have to respond as Ukrainian military command determines the scope and focus of such operations and communicates Ukraine's needs to Western partners weeks and months in advance to future counteroffensive operations.

ISW Key Findings for April 26:

- Western media continue to report that some US officials have resumed discussions on the idea of "freezing the contact line" where it is, as the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. Proponents of the current package do not argue that it alone will allow Ukraine to liberate all of the occupied territory, and discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature, as President Joe Biden signed legislation authorizing the new package just two days ago.

- The number of public meetings between officials from russia, Belarus, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Iran and North Korea has increased dramatically in recent days: at least 10 high-level bilateral meetings took place between April 22 and 26, underscoring the deepening of the multilateral partnership that these states are building up to confront the West.

- PRC officials said NATO was responsible for russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine amid meetings between PRC officials and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 26.

- Western partners of Ukraine continue to provide immediate and long-term military assistance to Ukraine, in particular, in the field of air defense.

- The Ukrainian military has reportedly withdrawn US-provided M1A1 Abrams tanks from the front lines in part due to the widespread threat of russian drones and other strikes.

- Russian authorities continue to expand the definition of persecuted anti-war sentiment to portray russians who oppose the war in Ukraine as opposing russia itself.

- Russian forces have recently made a confirmed advance northwest of Avdiyivka, and Ukrainian forces have made a confirmed advance on the east (left) bank of the Kherson Region, although this advance was likely not recent.

- The Tatar-Bashkir service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty "Idel Realii" reported on April 26 that a new volunteer motorized rifle battalion "Batyr" is being formed in the Samara Oblast.

- The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) issued a joint statement on behalf of 45 states av members, which states that russia is arbitrarily detaining thousands of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine and subjecting them to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.