Politics 2024-04-15T05:09:13+03:00
Ukrainian news
ISW analysts predict what AFU’s success at front in winter would depend on

ISW analysts predict what AFU’s success at front in winter would depend on

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Ukraine's ability to maintain the military initiative and the dynamics of operational success depends on whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue their successive operations this winter.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts write that successive operations are the main part of the Ukrainian campaign plan.

"A series of consecutive counteroffensive operations in the Kharkiv and the Kherson Regions demonstrates the outstanding operational planning skills of the AFU and knowledge of the strengths of the Soviet operational art," experts believe.

The plan of the Ukrainian campaign is designed to deprive Russia of the initiative, defeat its military and free more territory through a series of successive operations.

"Weather conditions in the winter of 2023 are likely to determine the time frame during which Ukraine will be able to conduct maneuver warfare and continue a series of operational successes with minimal pauses," the ISW report says.

According to analysts, U.S. intelligence was wrong in its prediction that there would be better conditions in the spring to continue operations.

The season of autumn mud in November made the war of maneuver difficult. However, Ukraine and the Russian Federation continued aggressive offensive operations.

With the approach of severe frosts at the end of December, Ukrainian forces will again be able to use the weather conditions. Winter is usually the best season for mechanized warfare in Ukraine, while spring is a nightmare season, experts say.

Key findings by ISW analysts:

  • Ukrainian forces will continue counterattack operations in the winter.
  • Ukraine's ability to maintain the military initiative depends on the continuation of counterattack operations by Ukrainian forces in the winter of 2022-2023.
  • Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks in the Kreminna and Svatovo areas.
  • Russian troops continued to conduct offensive actions in the area of Bakhmut and Avdiyivka.
  • Groups of mobilized Russian soldiers continue to undermine Russia's efforts to build new forces.
  • Russian forces probably publicly executed residents of the occupied Luhansk Region on charges of special operation forces’ activity.

As the Ukrainian News agency earlier reported, Russia is using World War II tactics in its war with Ukraine.